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Like fellow public policy / econ / future of work Nerds, I spent a lot of the weekend digging into different perspectives on Friday& #39;s Jobs Report.
Let& #39;s have some real talk & hot takes on what wasn& #39;t in the headlines:
Let& #39;s have some real talk & hot takes on what wasn& #39;t in the headlines:
April& #39;s report isn& #39;t ONLY:
1) the economic stimulus &
2) a worker shortage
Demand side, I see:
A) a short / long term mismatch on wages & careers, and
B) a skills shortage in mid-wage jobs
Supply side, I see:
C) a worker re-assessment and
D) a good jobs shortage
1) the economic stimulus &
2) a worker shortage
Demand side, I see:
A) a short / long term mismatch on wages & careers, and
B) a skills shortage in mid-wage jobs
Supply side, I see:
C) a worker re-assessment and
D) a good jobs shortage
But with 8.6M more folks unemployed than pre-COVID, this trend will long outlive the stimulus checks, and is more a mismatch than shortage of any sorts...
So let& #39;s unpack each trend:
So let& #39;s unpack each trend:
A - the short / long term mismatch on wages & careers:
A fascinating paradox: as the stimulus drives wage pressure up, it& #39;s also leading to more dead-end jobs.
*Some* companies will now do anything to get a worker in the door, but they only want & #39;em until the checks stop...
A fascinating paradox: as the stimulus drives wage pressure up, it& #39;s also leading to more dead-end jobs.
*Some* companies will now do anything to get a worker in the door, but they only want & #39;em until the checks stop...
When the stimulus checks stop and the macro wage pressure decreases, it& #39;s going to be *really* hard to convince employees to take a wage cut.
What& #39;s easier in a macro labor shift like that is to swap out the folks hired at $17 for *new* entry-level employees...
What& #39;s easier in a macro labor shift like that is to swap out the folks hired at $17 for *new* entry-level employees...
Most of this is going to happen at SMBs, but we& #39;re already watching some F2000 companies deploy this strategy.
No surprise, the companies with "lowish wage, dead-end" jobs are ones we often choose not to partner with at @GuildEducation...
No surprise, the companies with "lowish wage, dead-end" jobs are ones we often choose not to partner with at @GuildEducation...
Then we have B) the skills shortage
The headlines were about getting workers back into low-wage jobs in stores, trucks, warehouses and restaurants...
but we have a skills gap raging in nearly every F2000 headquarters in America.
The headlines were about getting workers back into low-wage jobs in stores, trucks, warehouses and restaurants...
but we have a skills gap raging in nearly every F2000 headquarters in America.
As one particularly smart VP of L&D put it --
"Google can now hire engineers in Atlanta... That means we& #39;ve lost our location advantage. And for the first time, my team in L&D is supposed to fix that since the TA team has about given up"
"Google can now hire engineers in Atlanta... That means we& #39;ve lost our location advantage. And for the first time, my team in L&D is supposed to fix that since the TA team has about given up"
It& #39;s increasingly getting easier for companies to build versus buy their skilled talent.
The companies who are going to survive this cycle will be those who do that while navigating the wage wars deftly.
The companies who are going to survive this cycle will be those who do that while navigating the wage wars deftly.
Still with me? We& #39;re moving onto the supply side.
C) We& #39;re in the midst of a broad scale worker re-assessment.
And it& #39;s that& #39;s FAR more robust and complex than "I have a stimulus check and therefore don& #39;t want to work."
C) We& #39;re in the midst of a broad scale worker re-assessment.
And it& #39;s that& #39;s FAR more robust and complex than "I have a stimulus check and therefore don& #39;t want to work."
The main thing that most reporters missed last Friday was this shocking stat:
All of the job gains in April went to men.
The number of women employed or looking for work fell by 64,000.
You& #39;ve got 2M women who left the workforce, and millions more sitting on the sidelines.
All of the job gains in April went to men.
The number of women employed or looking for work fell by 64,000.
You& #39;ve got 2M women who left the workforce, and millions more sitting on the sidelines.
That& #39;s not the stimulus at play, that& #39;s closed K-12 schools and daycare deserts.
Many women want to work, but they& #39;re not willing to leave their kids at home - unsupervised but for zoom - to do so.
We won& #39;t get to full economic participation without care infrastructure.
Many women want to work, but they& #39;re not willing to leave their kids at home - unsupervised but for zoom - to do so.
We won& #39;t get to full economic participation without care infrastructure.
Moreover, 3M baby boomers left the workforce in 2020.
To reel them back to work until they hit retirement age also requires more than than $300 a week...
They don& #39;t want to argue with people to put a mask on, and they do want to do stimulating work with a purpose.
To reel them back to work until they hit retirement age also requires more than than $300 a week...
They don& #39;t want to argue with people to put a mask on, and they do want to do stimulating work with a purpose.
Then you& #39;ve got the folks who stayed at work, and even they are antsy:
- 26% plan to look for a job as soon as the pandemic subsides
- 66% are considering job changes
- 26% plan to look for a job as soon as the pandemic subsides
- 66% are considering job changes
And finally, D) we& #39;re in a good jobs shortage.
What does that even mean?
Simply said -- workers don& #39;t care simply about wages (see point A), and they understand when they& #39;re signing up for a dead-end job or a career path.
What does that even mean?
Simply said -- workers don& #39;t care simply about wages (see point A), and they understand when they& #39;re signing up for a dead-end job or a career path.
There are indeed high-paying jobs that treat humans like cattle in warehouses, and turns out -- people don& #39;t want that work, even at $18 an hour.
We& #39;re seeing Gen Z through Baby Boomers look for jobs that allow for career mobility, even if that means starting at an entry wage.
We& #39;re seeing Gen Z through Baby Boomers look for jobs that allow for career mobility, even if that means starting at an entry wage.
It& #39;s part of why I think that VP of L&D is so smart --
the companies that figure out how the be Mobility Engines and how to Build versus Buy their talent will be the winners of this new economy we& #39;re in.
the companies that figure out how the be Mobility Engines and how to Build versus Buy their talent will be the winners of this new economy we& #39;re in.
Alright, I& #39;ll wrap it up.
Want to read more? Check out @Josh_Bersin - who& #39;s got this right on... And try to avoid polarizing press (far left or right) as both are missing the point.
We all need to figure this out to make the American economy work again...!
Want to read more? Check out @Josh_Bersin - who& #39;s got this right on... And try to avoid polarizing press (far left or right) as both are missing the point.
We all need to figure this out to make the American economy work again...!
