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(1/8) NAUTILUS THREAD $NLS
Software integrated cardio and strength products through various brands. A value play on connected fitness.
Full deep-dive here: https://fundamentalsfirst.xyz/nautilus-growth-at-1x-sales/
Software integrated cardio and strength products through various brands. A value play on connected fitness.
Full deep-dive here: https://fundamentalsfirst.xyz/nautilus-growth-at-1x-sales/
(2/8) Noteworthy Brands
While Schwinn is recognized all over the world for their cycling hardware, Bowflex appears to be Nautilus' long term winner. The brand sells a variety of software integrated cardio and strength products.
While Schwinn is recognized all over the world for their cycling hardware, Bowflex appears to be Nautilus' long term winner. The brand sells a variety of software integrated cardio and strength products.
(3/8) Bowflex Strength Products
Direct to consumer strength product sales +372% YoY in 2020. These are the ultimate home gym solutions - buy 1 adjustable dumbbell instead of 20 different sizes. Trainer led lifting video workouts on app.
Direct to consumer strength product sales +372% YoY in 2020. These are the ultimate home gym solutions - buy 1 adjustable dumbbell instead of 20 different sizes. Trainer led lifting video workouts on app.
(4/8) Bowflex Cardio
Software enabled bikes, treadmills, ellipticals and more. Direct to consumer cardio sales +78% YoY in 2020. Wide product offering starting at $999. Caters to large demographic.
Software enabled bikes, treadmills, ellipticals and more. Direct to consumer cardio sales +78% YoY in 2020. Wide product offering starting at $999. Caters to large demographic.
(5/8) JRNY Software
Uses machine learning to deliver personalized experiences for users with subscription ($20/month). E.g. your daily recommended trainer led workouts will gradually increase strain as you get stronger.
Uses machine learning to deliver personalized experiences for users with subscription ($20/month). E.g. your daily recommended trainer led workouts will gradually increase strain as you get stronger.
(6/8) Subscriber Trajectory 
4x increase in JRNY subscribers QoQ in Q4 2020.
Forecasts 2m subscribers by 2026. That's $480m annual, high margin, recurring revenues.
For reference, their market cap today is $490m (0.9x last year's sales).
4x increase in JRNY subscribers QoQ in Q4 2020.
Forecasts 2m subscribers by 2026. That's $480m annual, high margin, recurring revenues.
For reference, their market cap today is $490m (0.9x last year's sales).
(7/8) Expanding Margins
Gross margin 41% (+4.5% YoY)
Net income +730% 2019v2020 (11% net income margin).
Gross margin 41% (+4.5% YoY)
Net income +730% 2019v2020 (11% net income margin).
(8/8) Valuation
Market cap = $490m
2020 revenue = $553m
PE ratio = 9
EV/sales = 0.8x
Despite growing revenues, this is a value play on connected fitness for investors (or $AAPL as they scale Fitness+)
More detailed analysis here: https://fundamentalsfirst.xyz/nautilus-growth-at-1x-sales/
Market cap = $490m
2020 revenue = $553m
PE ratio = 9
EV/sales = 0.8x
Despite growing revenues, this is a value play on connected fitness for investors (or $AAPL as they scale Fitness+)
More detailed analysis here: https://fundamentalsfirst.xyz/nautilus-growth-at-1x-sales/
CC fellow connected fitness bulls @BobTreemore @PatternProfits @fatbabyfunds @PelotonHolder @profgalloway @QTRResearch @FromValue @Ryan_Burgio @ParrotStock @AndrewRangeley @ocshree @acouplecents @InvestmentTalkk
