Read on Twitter
Here's a fact check and of the daily briefing today. Is the govt actually following the data, or even presenting the data accurately?
TL;DR: The reality is in stark contrast to the rosy picture being presented by govt.
TL;DR: The reality is in stark contrast to the rosy picture being presented by govt.
So, four tests- have we met all of them?
I'm going to focus on variants here-
Whitty: non-Kent variants are <5% at this point.
Is this really the case?
No - Sanger data puts this proportion higher -11% in data ending 2nd May - with exponential growth. https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1391780421411778568?s=20
I'm going to focus on variants here-
Whitty: non-Kent variants are <5% at this point.
Is this really the case?
No - Sanger data puts this proportion higher -11% in data ending 2nd May - with exponential growth. https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1391780421411778568?s=20
Whitty: We are not currently concerned about these variants
Why?
Whitty himself says these have grown rapidly in past few wks, may be more transmissible than B117 & we don't know if vaccines are effective against them & accepts vaccines have lower efficacy against some variants.
Why?
Whitty himself says these have grown rapidly in past few wks, may be more transmissible than B117 & we don't know if vaccines are effective against them & accepts vaccines have lower efficacy against some variants.
Fact: The numbers of the variant are doubling each week with an estimated R=1.6-1.8, against a background of *drop in B117* suggesting that variant cases are rising exponentially in the midst of current restrictions. This is a sign of a variant that's *much* fitter than B117.
This also means that if this variant were fully dominant (100% of sequences), current R would be expected to be much higher, with cases doubling every week.
*Even* with current levels of vaccination, and with current levels of restrictions.
*Even* with current levels of vaccination, and with current levels of restrictions.
'But this variant isn't dominant'
It already is, in some parts of the UK, unfortunately- and we're seeing early exponential rises in many of those regions in keeping with expectations. At the current pace, we would expect this to be dominant in most of England in 2-4wks.
It already is, in some parts of the UK, unfortunately- and we're seeing early exponential rises in many of those regions in keeping with expectations. At the current pace, we would expect this to be dominant in most of England in 2-4wks.
Data up to 1st May (community- not travel or surge testing related) showed this. 25% of sequences from the community from London were B.1.617.2 on 1st May- given this doubles every week- it's entirely possible this variant is dominant in London now. https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1391780424947535872?s=20
Although sequences are small, we're already seeing this variant become dominant (>50%) in several regions, that are now showing exponential growth. These include Bedford, Bolton, Sefton and Blackburn. Many of these regions have had outbreaks in schools. https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1391780426788769800?s=20
What has the govt done to contain this?
-PHE delayed moving B.1.617.2 to VOC (delaying surge testing)due to local elections
-refused to provide data on school related infections that have likely played an important role in community spread of this variant https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/new-concerns-indian-covid-variant-clusters-found-across-england-ongoing-risk-high
-PHE delayed moving B.1.617.2 to VOC (delaying surge testing)due to local elections
-refused to provide data on school related infections that have likely played an important role in community spread of this variant https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/new-concerns-indian-covid-variant-clusters-found-across-england-ongoing-risk-high
The govt is now doing away with masks in schools- both in classrooms and communal settings- I'm not aware of any country so far that hasn't eliminated COVID-19 that has decided to strip these protections from schools. Even Israel with >80% adults vaccinated has masks in schools.
The PM was asked by a member of the public how this would impact teachers, many of whom haven't received any vaccines yet-
the PMs response-
-'use common sense and judgement'
-don't worry about not being vaccinated because vaccines aren't 100% protective anyway
the PMs response-
-'use common sense and judgement'
-don't worry about not being vaccinated because vaccines aren't 100% protective anyway
@BorisJohnson - how can teachers protect themselves with common sense/judgement when they spend hrs in poorly ventilated classrooms of 30 children, unvaccinated & with no masks
And how I can I ensure that my child doesn't get COVID and then long COVID in school with common sense?
And how I can I ensure that my child doesn't get COVID and then long COVID in school with common sense?
And please tell me, as someone on immunosuppression (and not vaccinated yet), how with common sense/judgement, I can keep myself safe from infection, long COVID, and severe disease, when my child goes to school in this environment that protections have been stripped from?
And if, as you say, vaccines aren't fully effective in preventing severe outcomes why are we so reliant on them as our sole strategy to open. It can't go both ways. We are clearly opening up fully aware that 75% of our population isn't fully vaccinated and 50% not at all.
While Whitty says that one dose reduces risk of death by 75-80% (with B117) - it's clear that protection even in those receiving a single dose is less than complete - and those who are unvaccinated can still go on to develop long COVID & for some, severe disease.
No acknowledgement at all of the fact that our negligent strategy that has not sought to keep the pandemic under control - as long as the NHS didn't completely break- has resulted in an estimated 1.1 million people living with long COVID, with 478,000 people with symptoms >6 mths
Why is our govt ok to expose people they perceive as not-vulnerable to an infection we barely understand- that is causing chronic illness in 22% of people it infects- including children?
And a new variant, we understand even less, that we don't even know vaccines protect against?
And a new variant, we understand even less, that we don't even know vaccines protect against?
And of course, not only are we happy to let new variants spread here, we've eased travel restrictions, so we can now export these globally as we did with B117 (which was linked to the current surge in Europe), so that others can share in our experience.
I understand this narrative helps the govt politically- but I can't imagine a worse situation than if we lose control of the pandemic now & spread this variant across Europe.
What the govt never understood is that we need to control the pandemic for life to return to normal.
What the govt never understood is that we need to control the pandemic for life to return to normal.
And controlling the pandemic involves
- control at borders with managed quarantine- no 'lists'
- good test, trace, isolate & support systems
- containing aerosol transmission, including in schools
- urgent containment of variants of concern
(alongside vaccines)
- control at borders with managed quarantine- no 'lists'
- good test, trace, isolate & support systems
- containing aerosol transmission, including in schools
- urgent containment of variants of concern
(alongside vaccines)
This is the only way to return to normal. Whitty says variants arise from the 'blue sky'. 'We can't see them coming'. Yes, we can- it's transmission that leads to mutation that gives opportunities for adaptation. This wasn't inevitable. We let this happen.
We let variants of concern evolve due to long periods of high transmission. We imported variants of concern fully knowing that our failed border policy would never be able to keep them at bay. They didn't fall from the blue sky. They came from our failures to plan ahead.
What if we're faced with a variant that vaccines don't work that well against? What if that variant becomes dominant? What if it's highly transmissible & fatal? (not hypothetical- we know such variants already exist). What will we do then. What is plan B?
We have repeatedly failed to translate evidence into policy- & we still continue this.
Continue flawed border strategies.
Continue with a broken test, trace, isolate & support system
Continue not listening to advice from SAGE & experts on the need for mitigations in schools
Continue flawed border strategies.
Continue with a broken test, trace, isolate & support system
Continue not listening to advice from SAGE & experts on the need for mitigations in schools
The govt is saying the public should use their judgement- this is an abdication of responsibility. What happens now will be completely down to negligent govt policy- and they will need to own it.
And given that our CMO himself quotes incorrect data, how are we then following the 'data'?
And why has @PHE_uk not passed on crucial data about spread of new variants linked to schools to unions- surely this was data relevant to deciding mask policy? https://twitter.com/UNISONinSchools/status/1391799268143419399?s=20
And why has @PHE_uk not passed on crucial data about spread of new variants linked to schools to unions- surely this was data relevant to deciding mask policy? https://twitter.com/UNISONinSchools/status/1391799268143419399?s=20
If you want to look at exponential rises where the new variant is dominant or prevalent, here's a graph by @Ian_Campbell_ https://twitter.com/Ian_Campbell_/status/1391783344598364167?s=20
