In April, @malar0ne and I hosted a @StanfordHumScie & @StanfordMed panel on the science of herd immunity with @mlipsitch @meyerslab @parsonnt and Rustom Antia; key sources for the NYT piece. They made 5 key points that recent press coverage misses: 2/ https://twitter.com/morde/status/1382115650051608578
1. Herd immunity isn’t all-or-nothing. It gradually builds and protects us as it accumulates. The herd immunity threshold is just the point at which herd immunity makes the epidemic unable to grow on average 3/
2. There’s not just one herd immunity threshold. It depends on contact patterns, protective behavior, pathogen transmissibility, & more. B.1.1.7 ⬆️ transmissibility by 60% so ⬆️ HIT by ~10-20 percentage points. HIT was always a moving target 4/
3. We don’t have to reach the herd immunity threshold for life to get much better & more normal. As immunity increases and we keep vaccinating, we can test-trace-isolate new cases to snuff out local epidemics. Transmission will ⬇️ and interventions manage spread better. 5/
4. We'll reach herd immunity in many communities, if not whole US. Vax rates very high in many places; universities like @Stanford requiring vaccination for all students & staff this fall. Continued outreach needed to increase vaccination in communities with poor coverage. 6/
5. We won’t be protected until the whole world is protected, even if we do reach herd immunity in the US. New variants emerge where there is rapid spread, and some are more transmissible and can evade immunity to some degree. Need global vax coverage 7/
As @mlipstich said, herd immunity is neither necessary nor sufficient to get out of this pandemic. Like Fauci says, focus on getting people vaccinated which will decrease community spread. Each person vaccinated is one less who will infect friends & family. Focus on this. 8/8
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