1/ CryptoPunks by @larvalabs are a $1.9B (476,114 ETH) unicorn according to our researchers

We believe this is the first full aggregate market cap of an NFT project/ecosystem, valuing each of the 10,000 CryptoPunks.

The project:
http://www.nftvaluations.com 
@nftvaluations

2/ First, the who. A team of researchers at @IFFunic at the @UNIC_ENG has been working at a heroic pace the last few weeks to see if they can create a plausible aggregated valuation model for all CryptoPunks.

As most of you know, @UNIC_ENG crypto since 2013.

3/ The NFT space is already a multi-billion dollar market cap space focused today on art and collectibles.

Our view is that NFTs will expand to take on a significant portion of the art, collectibles and community market in its *initial* phase.

4/ Given the existing size of the NFT space, it is already important for artists, collectors, investment managers and service providers to have an objective and real-time view of the value of the NFTs

5/ This is even more valuable given the "composable" nature of NFTs and DeFi protocols which means that fungible and non-fungible tokens can be combined in a variety of smart contracts

6/ To take a simple example, a DeFi loan collateralized by a NFT would greatly benefit from an automated real-time view of the price of the NFT (and, of course, with a large margin of safety)

7/ In time, NFTs will not be limited to art, collectibles and community but will grow to represent a wide variety of non-fungible assets and services (which is most of them).

Within this decade, NFTs will represent >$1 trillion of value.

8/ Now, returning to the CryptoPunks.

Why did we start with them? For the simple reason that CryptoPunks are the definitive NFT project - they were the first NFT project on Ethereum, they have the highest market value and the most transaction activity / liquidity.

9/ Market caps even for fungible tokens in the crypto-assets are sometimes disputed, due to questions about final token supply and the reliability of data from a variety of exchanges.

NFTs are an order of magnitude more difficult.

10/ For the purposes of this analysis, we are defining 'market cap' as the aggregate value of all NFTs in a project / ecosystem (in this case CryptoPunks).

This obviously does not include any equity value that @larvalabs has due to the project IP/copyrights.

11/ The main difficulty of course is that CryptoPunks are non-fungible, each with a different sparse set of characteristics. The sales transactions data is even sparser.

Beyond this, the fact that CPs have gone up 20x in prices in 4-5 months adds an extra modeling challenge

12/ Our current valuation is a blended valuation model of multiple machine learning models. We consider the model at this point is a "beta" model. We believe it has room for improvement on the aggregate level and even further room for improvement on the individual level

13/ We will be continuing to refine the model in the coming weeks. Once we believe we have reached a stable state model, we will provide a more detailed view of the approaches, model strength/weaknesses and error ranges.

14/ The current model is more accurate on the aggregate (marketcap) level than on the individual CryptoPunk level. We see some individual CryptoPunk weaknesses (e.g. the model does not sufficiently penalize "Floor Punks") but we think it is directionally correct in aggregate.

15/ Some interesting links:

1) Valuation by trait: https://nftvaluations.com/cryptopunks 

2) About the project

https://nftvaluations.com/about 

3) The curious case of Punk 4513 https://blog.nftvaluations.com/the-curious-case-of-punk/

16/ Is this financial advice? Of course not. NFTs and crypto values are extraordinarily highly volatile.

Should you use this data right now to sell and buy? Not yet. We might be undervaluing or overvaluing any particular CryptoPunk.

17/ Does the valuation take into account the likely price ranges of the Christie's aliens?

No, it does not. The model has not "seen" that data yet, but it will see it tomorrow

18/ What is next for the team? We will be refining the model, testing its accuracy and reporting our results.

We will also extend the methodology to other NFT projects once it stabilizes.

Our goal is be able to report near-real-time assessments of NFT market-caps

19/ What if you have comments and suggestions and ideas for improvement?

We would very much welcome them. Please ping the team @nftvaluations.

20/ What if you would like to work with the team on a part-time, collaborative or full-time basis?

Please get in touch, again, at @nftvaluations. We are looking for partners with expertise in NFTs, blockchains, art and machine learning

21/ Finally, a tremendous congratulations to @matthall2000 and @pents90 for their massive achievement and historic day tomorrow.

We will be watching with anticipation.