THREAD on latest data on B.1.617.2 (an "India" Variant) in England.

The Sanger Institute released its latest sequencing data for variants in England today
https://covid19.sanger.ac.uk/about 

TLDR: it's not looking good at all. 1/6

Sanger removes cases from travellers to England & from surge testing to get a picture of what is happening in the community.

In England, within TWO weeks to 1 May, B.1.617.2 (the new variant of concern) went from 1% to 11% of cases. Other variants <1%.

A massive increase. 2/6

This is concentrated in a few regions: London, the NW (quickest rise), East of England and then E Midlands & SE.

PHE also highlighted London and NW as particularly concerning in its Friday report
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/984274/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_10_England.pdf 3/6

In the NW cases are concentrated in a few towns with v high proportion B.1.617 w/e 1 May: highest are Blackburn with Darwen (75%), Bedford (73%), Bolton (69%).

These are obv low numbers of cases. But what is happening to overall covid cases here? 4/6

Downloading data from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/download for each local authority shows that, compared to week before, cases in week to 5th May have increased by 43% (Blackburn), 58% (Bedford) and 91% (Bolton).

It's not more tests - tests look flat & all 3 have growing PCR positivity. 5/6

Under *current* restrictions, within a context of v infectious B117 ("Kent" variant) and *high population immunity* B.1.617.2 seems to be spreading quickly.

Numbers still low(ish) but for how much longer? What will happen after 17th May when so much more opens? 6/6

PS this is not about returning to lockdown, it's about taking this seriously & strengthening public health measure such as contact tracing, support for isolation, testing, masks in indoor spaces (inc schools). it's about getting on top of situation *now*