Travis Etienne is STILL my RB1 and he should be YOURS too:

(Im not afraid of James Robinson)

A THREAD

Travis Etienne is going all the way at pick 1.08 in SF Rookie Drafts

This is just flat out disrespectful

ADP Via @Adeiko_FF

I think this stems from people undervaluing ETN's talent profile and overvaluing his landing spot in Jacksonville

We are well into May but lets do a quick overview of his profile

Workhorse Build:
-5'10
-215 ibs
-30+ BMI
-4.5 40
-Best Comp: D'Andre Swift( @rotounderworld)

"But Ron these are numbers he posted in spandex, Swift is a much better prospect"

Is he?

Travis ETN is an ELITE runner of the football In his Soph and Junior seasons he posted roughly: 8 YPC, 1600 rushing Yards, and 20 rushing TDs in each of those seasons

He became an ELITE receiving threat on the back end of his career:

Year 1+2: 17 recs
Year 3+4: 85 recs

ETN also posted a 12.2% Target Share in his final szn(87th Percentile)

ETN earned the highest PFF Receiving Grade among all NCAA RBs in 2020 and was the only RB to score 90+

SIDE NOTE: I've been hearing some comps to Kamara and from a receiving standpoint there's for sure some merit to this

This is a chart via @campus2canton comparing their receiving yard market shares over their final 2 seasons
*ETN had to compete with Higgins, Ross, Rogers, etc

BONUS: http://NFL.com 's prospect grades are super predictive of future success for RBs

I put his 6.71 against the 17+20 Classes to see how good of a prospect he really is

He ranked as the RB4 behind just 4net, Cook, and Swift. Ahead of guys like Kamara and Mixon

We have a JT/MIXON LEVEL PROSPECT with first-round draft capital and NO ONE seems to care.

This is mostly driven by landing spot

And in particular James Robinson

HE HAD A GREAT YEAR BUT lets add context.

In a covid year James Robinson found himself in a normal backfield until:
Leonard Fournette: Cut
Ryquell Armstead: Covid
Devine Ozigbo: Hamstring Injury

In week 1 the backfield was J Rob and Chris Thompson

Lets not act like he rose to the top of a crowded backfield or EARNED a crazy opportunity share

He was apart of an empty backfield and that's why a UDFA led the league with an 85% Opportunity Share

This was a tanking team with no desire to fill their holes at RB

James Robinson took on a wild amount of volume, but this doesn't make him a stud running back

Per @PFF: Of the RBs w/100+ carries, JRob ranked as RB23 in offensive grade behind Ronald Jones and Jamaal Williams

Which to me, is fair

If you put Williams or Rojo in JRob's situation last year, they both probably score about 17.7 PPG on 20+ touches per game

This is interesting

Fantasy Points Per Opportunity:
Rojo: 0.8
Williams: 0.8
JRob: 0.83(66th)

Still not ready to dismiss JRob?

Of the RBs Drafted Round 5+ w/ 800+ rushing yards in year 1:

1/9 had 2+ Top 12 seasons
4/9 had 2+ Top 24 seasons
0/9 had 4+ Top 24 seasons

This was most likely a Phil Lindsay type flash in the pan szn

Chart via @dfbeancounter

Why Jacksonville is actually a great Landing Spot for ETN:

-He's tethered to Andrew Luck 2.0(HIS COLLEGE QB)
-There's no satellite back to take away targets
- @mikeclayNFL projects JAX to be top 10 in pass attempts with 600+
-ETN is in play for 75-90 Targets in YEAR 1

So AFTER ALL OF THIS:

Najee harris at the 1.03(5 SPOTS AHEAD OF ETN!) is simply outrageous

This would imply that Najee is one or both of these things:
-In a much better landing spot
-A better prospect by a mile

Both of these are false

Najee's QB Situation:

Yall would really rather your young RB be paired with Big Ben over T Law?

Big Ben was awful last year and they have no one to replace him

Steelers will be in QB purgatory w/ an elite d that will never lose enough to pick top 5

This offense will STRUGGLE in 2021

They have the leagues TOUGHEST SCHEDULE according to @mikeclaynfl

There will be few positive game scripts, Clay also has the Steelers projected for LEAGUE BOTTOM in Rush Attempts/Yards/TDS

Tell me again why this is some great landing spot?

The Steelers also have an AWFUL O LINE:

-The Steelers had the 2nd worst run-blocking unit in 2020

-The only resources they added were lineman in the 3rd and 4th round

-Project to be a bottom 5 unit again in 2021

This is really scary for Najee Harris

His standout years at Alabama in 2019 and 2020 he enjoyed the 2nd and 9th best run-blocking units in the Power 5

Had multiple NFL talents like Jedrick Wills, Alex Leatherwood, Evan Neal, Landon Dickerson, etc

*ETN never had a 1st round O Lineman during 4 YEARS at Clemson

BONUS:

Among backs since 2016 studied by @grahamBarfield, Najee Harris ranked in the 90th percentile of yards blocked per attempt

Definition: The amount of yards an offensive line opens up for the running back per attempt

30% of his career 6 YPC can be contributed to the OL

"But Ron, hes a great receiver so the OL and negative game scripts wont matter"

Hes a good receiver but not a great one

PFF Receiving Grades(min. 20 Targets)
Najee
2019: 8th
2020: 32nd

ETN
2019: 1st
2020: 12th

And below is Najee in that same chart from earlier

To Recap Najee Harris:

-Got 1st Round Draft Capital
-Goes to PIT
-Has Bad QB Play
-Has Bad O Line Play(has been propped up by elite OL his whole career)
-Leagues Toughest Schedule
-Negative Gamescripts(w/o the skillset to compliment this)

But is somehow miles ahead of ETN

Najee's only leg up on ETN is JRob>Snell

THIS IS DYNASTY, we own these players for life

You could've been scared off Swift, Akers, and Dobbins last year by Kerryon Johnson, Darrell Henderson, and Mark Ingram

Lets zoom out and look a little longer-term given the format

Conc:

The difference in ADP is insane

Not even saying ETN needs to be your RB1 but he shouldn't be moving this low nor should you be moving him down if he was originally your RB1.

If Najee is the 1.03, ETN NEEDS to be the 1.04

If ETN falls past the 1.07 make an offer

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