$AMRS DD Thread
Lets go!
Lets Define
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧪" title="Test tube" aria-label="Emoji: Test tube">Synthetic biology: Engineering organisms to develop new abilities
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧪" title="Test tube" aria-label="Emoji: Test tube">$AMRS engineers yeast to create a roster of molecules
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧪" title="Test tube" aria-label="Emoji: Test tube">Molecules can be used as ingredients for everything from cosmetic products to sweeteners and cannabinoids
Following so far? Good
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😎" title="Lächelndes Gesicht mit Sonnenbrille" aria-label="Emoji: Lächelndes Gesicht mit Sonnenbrille">
Following so far? Good
Why is this the next industrial revolution?
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟢" title="Grüner Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Grüner Kreis">Moore’s law type progress: Molecule production now <1 year, compared 5 prev, and getting lower
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟢" title="Grüner Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Grüner Kreis">Cost: $AMRS& #39; Squalane for eg. is 1/3 traditional cost
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟢" title="Grüner Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Grüner Kreis">Global sustainability tailwinds
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟢" title="Grüner Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Grüner Kreis">Greater purity control = Synthetic > Sourced
$AMRS has a lab-to-market platform
A challenging business model; but worth it if successful
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚠️" title="Warnsignal" aria-label="Emoji: Warnsignal">Challenging: R&D, supply and brand mgmt all at once is difficult in terms of resource allocation and focus
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥇" title="Goldmedaille" aria-label="Emoji: Goldmedaille">But if executed well, $AMRS has control over supply and demand. They reap all cost savings and revenue rewards
$AMRS is currently valued at $3.1B
If you’ve read this far, know that I will not be able to include every piece of $AMRS insight into this thread
This is a summary of what I think is important
If you think something new needs to be highlighted, comment at the end
Got that, ok now lets move on
$AMRS brands include: Biossance, Pipette, Purecane
Exciting new brands include: Clean Beauty Collaborative with Rosie Huntington-Whiteley; and a new hair brand with Queereye’s Jonathan Van Ness
Amrys is going for the consumer jugular here
Consumer brands is $AMRS hedge on its tech stack
Syn-bio is innovating and right now the competition is in the tech stack
$AMRS is pushing its commercial headstart into consumer ownership
If a competitor develops better tech, Amyris has hedged this by owning downstream demand
Syn-bio is innovating and right now the competition is in the tech stack
$AMRS is pushing its commercial headstart into consumer ownership
If a competitor develops better tech, Amyris has hedged this by owning downstream demand
Interlude: Follow or give a like if you appreciate this DD
@riskrewardcap
What you can expect:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">DD on strong risk-reward opportunities
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">Applying my experience as a Strategist to analyse growth models
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">Updates, stock commentary and changes to thesis
Ok, back to work
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@riskrewardcap
What you can expect:
Ok, back to work
Q1 financials and guidance
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💵" title="Banknote mit Dollar-Zeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Banknote mit Dollar-Zeichen">$176.9M total reported rev (507% YOY)
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💵" title="Banknote mit Dollar-Zeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Banknote mit Dollar-Zeichen">$33M underlying rev (excl. A one-off payment)
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔥" title="Feuer" aria-label="Emoji: Feuer">91% GM (underlying GM 52%)
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💵" title="Banknote mit Dollar-Zeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Banknote mit Dollar-Zeichen">$103M (Adjusted EBITDA)
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💵" title="Banknote mit Dollar-Zeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Banknote mit Dollar-Zeichen">Debt lowered by $94M YOY
2021 Guidance
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💵" title="Banknote mit Dollar-Zeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Banknote mit Dollar-Zeichen">$400M total revenue
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💵" title="Banknote mit Dollar-Zeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Banknote mit Dollar-Zeichen">Positive full year adjusted EBITDA
2021 Guidance
Credit SeekingAlpha
Investing in $AMRS is not without risks
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟡" title="Gelber Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Gelber Kreis">Amyris is facing a lawsuit from a partner. See response below
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟡" title="Gelber Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Gelber Kreis">A rough history of pivoting through dead-ends ranging from malaria treatments to renewable fuels
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟡" title="Gelber Kreis" aria-label="Emoji: Gelber Kreis">Anecdotally, retail holders have claimed CEO ‘overreaches’ on targets
The bear case for $AMRS
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🐻" title="Bärengesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Bärengesicht">Tech stack might not be as good as other competitors
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🐻" title="Bärengesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Bärengesicht">Checkered past of difficulty in finding proper commercialisation use cases
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🐻" title="Bärengesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Bärengesicht">Challenging to break traditional ingredient sourcing industry unless Amyris really has cost, purity, trust advantages
The bull case for $AMRS
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔥" title="Feuer" aria-label="Emoji: Feuer">$4T global chemicals TAM
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔥" title="Feuer" aria-label="Emoji: Feuer">Consumer brand ownership to hedge tech
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔥" title="Feuer" aria-label="Emoji: Feuer">Cheaper and purer than traditional manufacturing
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔥" title="Feuer" aria-label="Emoji: Feuer">Able to enter a large number of sectors such as pharma and industrial materials
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔥" title="Feuer" aria-label="Emoji: Feuer">Multiple long term revenue streams & good margins
$AMRS business model: its greatest risk and strength
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚠️" title="Warnsignal" aria-label="Emoji: Warnsignal">Risk: Focus and business prioritisation
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔑" title="Schlüssel" aria-label="Emoji: Schlüssel">Company needs to perform smart decision-making all the way from R&D to sales and marketing
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💎" title="Edelstein" aria-label="Emoji: Edelstein">However within lies the biggest reward: a true lab-to-consumer play
$AMRS has a commercialisation headstart against competitors
$ZY ($4b): only 1 product in market; no product sales revenue ( $AMRS 13 ingredients in market)
Ginkgo $SRNG ($20B): great company with disruptive tech and IP business model but no room for error with that valuation
$ZY ($4b): only 1 product in market; no product sales revenue ( $AMRS 13 ingredients in market)
Ginkgo $SRNG ($20B): great company with disruptive tech and IP business model but no room for error with that valuation
If executed well, this small cap will grow exponentially
My personal play
Don’t fight the (bear) trend in growth stocks, I fully expect prices to fall further
I have a starter position; will DCA in planned tranches
If the market cap falls to $2B I am buying with both hands
I am just a voice on Twitter, please do your own DD
Don’t fight the (bear) trend in growth stocks, I fully expect prices to fall further
I have a starter position; will DCA in planned tranches
If the market cap falls to $2B I am buying with both hands
I am just a voice on Twitter, please do your own DD
Conclusion: Why invest in $AMRS
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen"> $AMRS is a leader in a game-changing sector
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">Lab-to-Consumer play could be a masterstroke
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">IP + Brands approach can build a long term moat
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✅" title="Fettes weißes Häkchen" aria-label="Emoji: Fettes weißes Häkchen">If $AMRS executes successfully, its valuation should match the $4T TAM it aims to conquer
Trade safe
Trade safe