Biden is in a tough bind, but the reality is that, absent action on voting reform and an effort to head-off the GOP's plan to refuse to certify a Democratic victor in 2024, most of his wins will be trivial and fleeting. That's the huge looming catastrophe and it needs action.

If you swapped today's GOP for the one that existed only 6 months ago and re-ran the 2020 election, you would have had dueling slates from all of the swing states sent to the electoral college. That's how fast it's moved and it's not slowing down.

My prediction for 2024 absent action on this issue if Trump runs: All states with GOP-controlled state legislatures that Biden wins by less than a 5% margin will send Trump electors to EC authorized by those state legislatures. (They may also send dueling Dem slates.)

I think the general public, despite the absolute shitshow of January 2020, is unaware that the American constitutional order has no good way to deal with dueling slates. Trump seizing the office through a House vote would be massively unpopular, but Trump and his GOP DO NOT CARE.

While it's shocking that they're openly signaling they're going to try to do it even if it would be massively unpopular, they will absolutely try if given the chance. And Democrats seem to be just hoping that it won't happen, which, of course, makes it much more likely to happen.

I predicted most of this at the end of this essay, but if I had to revise it I would be more explicit about what a dangerous dynamic we'll have in 2024. At the time, I underrated Trump's likelihood of running again in 2024, which changes things. https://bearistotle.substack.com/p/the-apophenic-thrall