Important data out today from Catalist.

In 2020, the majority of Trump voters were women and people of color. Women and people of color are making up an increasing share of Republican voters.

More important insights from today's Catalist data release. Trump increased his margins with all race+gender groups except white men. Women of color were the most swayed by Trump's style of governing.

The new Catalist data seems to line up with my theory that all the Big Think about the 2016 election was mistaken. Trump did not do any better than usual (in fact slightly worse). It's just that hillary did way worse than usual, with the balance heading to third parties.

Things are shifting below these headline numbers (e.g. in 2020, support for Trump became blacker, browner, and more female) but the basic story of Trump's 2016 victory is just that Hillary was a remarkably bad candidate.