Always a privilege to work with the brilliant @EvaKahan, this time on an assessment of the current state of #ISIS-militia competition in #Iraq’s Baghdad Belts from @TheStudyofWar: https://bit.ly/3nW54pP 

We argue that Iranian-backed militias are exerting control over populations and transit routes around #Baghdad to eject US forces and set conditions to maintain long-term demographic control. Note the overlap between militia attack zones and Baghdad’s new electoral districts:

Militia activity causes other security forces to divide their attention between countering militias and #ISIS, reducing the effectiveness of both efforts. ISIS exploits that gap to build support zones through the #Baghdad Belts from which it can stage spectacular attacks:

#ISIS exploits these militia-worsened security conditions to conduct attacks like the January 21 double bombing in Tayaran Square that killed and injured over a hundred people. Militias then capitalize on these attacks to justify their presence and malign behavior.

Security in #Baghdad will continue to degrade to the advantage of both #ISIS and #Iran-backed militias without an integrated counter-militia/counter-ISIS approach. The US-led Coalition can offer potentially pivotal support to such a campaign.

Should the US choose to support such a campaign, it must take a whole-of-government approach. US advisors can support the Iraqi government in supplanting the levers of social control currently administered by the militias and their political wings.

Efforts to diversify the Iraqi economy and reduce dependence on militia employment, while encouraging reforms to minimize PMF expansion and independence, could reduce the degree to which militias control the population.
/ end

[but one final note: @EvaKahan makes beautiful maps, for which I deserve no credit. I treasure them.]