These days I am often asked whether a Federal Army (FA) in #Myanmar can actually materialise to the point that it poses a challenge to the Tatmadaw, one of the world's largest militaries

IMO such questions are framed in the wrong way

Some thoughts on why FA is important 1/10 https://twitter.com/NUGMyanmar/status/1391427762028568580

Sure, the creation of a Federal Army faces many challenges, not least real resource constraints, such as a lack of funds and access to weapons & collective action problems across the spectrum of armed groups in Myanmar. That's a no-brainer which everyone involved understands 2/10

That said, I believe that what is happening here is significant and can indeed pose a challenge to the Tatmadaw, not necessarily as a fighting force on the ground but as an idea in the formation of a new Myanmar. I believe this for several reason: 3/10

1) The Federal Army vision acknowledges EAOs as legitimate regional forces, rather than demanding their eventual demobilisation, one of the biggest stumbling blocks of previous negotiations, including NCA and Panglong 21st ct peace process. 4/10

2) Thus, the idea of FA can serve as a platform for creating more trust and unity among diverse revolutionary forces, especially with EAOs. After dissolving the NCGUB in 2012, NLD has previously thrown EAO allies under the bus. So this will take time but is worthwhile 5/10

3) At the same time, & as stated often before, the Federal Army can contribute to fragmentation in the Tatmadaw, by providing an incentive for defection and home for defected soldiers. Thus FA can contribute to creating a) unity amongst revolution & b) division in regime 6/10

4) And, however, odd the battlefield chances might seem at present: Myanmar's history of armed struggle clearly demonstrates how highly motivated people who mobilise to defend their communities can successfully resist an overwhelming military giant. 7/10

5) Most importantly, and as we know from the writings of Frantz Fanon, the act of armed struggle itself is often a crucial part of liberatory projects. This is not to romanticise violence but to check on Western misconceptions... 8/10

... that often criminalise armed resistance against the state even in the most genocidal places. If you have not seen this yet, Dr Sasa's well-put response says it all. 9/10 https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=505392673992284

...it also reminds me of the work by Barkawi & Laffey, who wrote the below in 2006.

Hopefully a less militarised Myanmar will emerge in the future. For now, it seems that armed struggle, including the building of a Federal Army are crucial for the making of a new Burma 10/10