1/ Labour's pivot, and I would argue their strategy on Brexit since 2016 has relied on assuming Different Interpretations of the same Rorsach ink-blot test.

They want remainers to see a Labour party that is still "Open" and leavers to see a New Labour party that is "Closed"

2/"Labour, and Starmer, seem scared of saying what they think, and yet still pay the price of what such voters infer from their silence without reaping the full benefit of support from those who would agree with what they dare not say, were they to say it" https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2021/05/labour-and-post-brexit-politics.html

3/ The recent local elections prove that when presented with the ink-blot, remainers don't see butterflies and leavers don't see elephants: they see a party trying to deceive them.

4/ They just see the ink blot itself: they see the trick, not the interpretation Labour indirectly wants to infer.

The magician never shows the workings of the trick, but Labour's political trickery is so ham-fisted, so blatant, so obvious, so risible that nobody buys it.

5/ Since Labour's voter base is now split between (ex-)remainers and (ex-)leavers, and under FPTP they can only win (as a single party) by uniting both, then they are in a pickle.

6/ This is nothing new: Corbyn wouldn't admit he was a leaver, and the Labour (deliberately) gave out mixed messages since the ref (they did this by allowing different voices in the party to be honest:...

7/ Frank Field and Hoey being reactionary hard leave, Lammy being strongly anti-Brexit (until the TCA in Dec 2020). The Rorsach test partly worked then because at least then there authentic voices on both sides expressing their opinion within the party.

8/ But now, Labour has to "unify" around a position. Since they know Leavers won't change their minds in the face of evidence (since their position is primarily arrived at via values not argument), and since they assume FPTP forces remainers to fall into line, ...

9/ ..their new consensus is actually pretty authoritarian (see my previous threads)...

However leavers aren't buying it - because they know it's fake. Remainers also know it's fake but are appalled at a policy level and a values level.

10/ Both sides note the artifice - the form not the content. And this is probably why (in my opinion) Labour's pivot has completely failed.

11/ As long as they continue down this road, it will continue to fail. Watch out for more Rorschachs from Labour. There will be an endless stream.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rorschach_test

p.s. (Sorry for misspelling Rorschach earlier)

12/ (perhaps the above is why leave voters claim Labour and Starmer lack authenticity. Remainers KNOW Labour lacks authenticity).

13/ For a really dreadful example of Labour banking on interpretation of ambiguity (Rorschach politics):

Starmer pledges to "change the things that need changing and that is the change that I will bring about." https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1390685349341548547

14/ The advantage the Tories have is that the electorate are SO authoritarian, SO right wing, that uniting them over social-conservative, nationalist, nativist, exceptionalist values results in a coalition big enough and distributed enough to win UK GEs.

15/ Although Tory MPs are Less Authoritarian than their voters. Their membership is More authoritarian than their voters. So a pivot to a pure-play English Nationalist party doesn't lose them votes - in fact it wins them authoritarian Labour votes.

16/ The MPs (the demagogues) don't have to show the electorate Rorschachs: they can come out and say it: "We are nationalists straight-up. No tricks. We actually hate foreigners". And the electorate believes them, because it's actually true. The fact it's abhorrent is irrelevant.

17/ Given that the opposition is split amongst 5+ parties, and the right is now 100% unified around nationalism etc., and the UK has FPTP, and Rorschach politics won't hold a coalition of voters together, then it's obvious that only by the opposition uniting can the Tories lose.