I think this @ShamikaRavi tweet is not only wrong, but also dangerous as it encourages vaccine hesitancy. TL;DR: It compares people vaccinated to active cases. We should compare people vaccinated to total cases (not just active). Details in below (1/n). https://twitter.com/ShamikaRavi/status/1391406497440010247

Some data dabbling showed me that Shamika's plot shows daily increase in (people vaccinated/active cases) as percent of total (people vaccinated/active cases). I believe this is wrong and misleading. Here is why: (2/n)

People vaccinated is a number that can only INCREASE over time. But active cases can increase, decrease or stay constant, depending on spread prevention and recovery/death. Comparing those two is like comparing water level in two bathtubs, where both have taps filling them, (3/n)

but one also has an outlet draining out the water. So comparing speed of taps by looking at the change in water level in the bathtubs is not correct. We need to turn off the drain in bathtub 2, and then observe the water level in the two bathtubs. (4/n)

In other words, we should compare daily new vaccinated as percent of total vaccinated, to daily new cases as percent of total cases. This includes recovery/death (not just active cases). So close the drain & keep the taps running: daily vaccinated, and daily new cases. (5/n)

I have plotted "daily new cases as percent of total cases" in green . Blue (vaccinated) and Green (total cases) shows no correlation, no surprise there. Daily case increase is not driven by vaccination. (I have kept Shamika's active cases (orange) for contrast) (6/n).

Summary: Vaccines are not causing the recent spike in cases. Only culprits are govt mismanagement, lax regulations, strains. I am not an epidemiologist by any stretch of the word, so don't listen to me. Just look at the global data. Vaccines work. Period. (7/n)

And as always, please let me know if I am made a fatal error in my analysis. I will take down this thread immediately to prevent spread of misinformation. (8/8)