Read on Twitter
1/Y
Thread on a fallacy I've seen a lot since the pandemic's beginning. Someone may have named it before, but if so, I can't find it.
So I'm calling it:
the ebola fallacy, or the ebolavirus fallacy
You've likely seen it before, without realizing it. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1390251104940797954
Thread on a fallacy I've seen a lot since the pandemic's beginning. Someone may have named it before, but if so, I can't find it.
So I'm calling it:
the ebola fallacy, or the ebolavirus fallacy
You've likely seen it before, without realizing it. https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1390251104940797954
2/Y
Background:
The infection fatality rate, or IFR, represents the proportion of infected people who died of the disease caused by that infection.
So assume IFR is much lower for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) than it is for ebolaviruses (Ebola).
https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/analyses/first_adjusted_mortality_estimates_and_risk_assessment/2019-nCoV-preliminary_age_and_time_adjusted_mortality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html
Background:
The infection fatality rate, or IFR, represents the proportion of infected people who died of the disease caused by that infection.
So assume IFR is much lower for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) than it is for ebolaviruses (Ebola).
https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/analyses/first_adjusted_mortality_estimates_and_risk_assessment/2019-nCoV-preliminary_age_and_time_adjusted_mortality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html
3/Y
Yet COVID-19 killed over 3 million people in less than 1.5 years, while Ebola managed to killed over ~200 times less people in a longer period of time.
Why?
One reason is SARS-CoV-2 infects way more people than ebolaviruses
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1334712609669525505
https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/2014-2016-outbreak/index.html
Yet COVID-19 killed over 3 million people in less than 1.5 years, while Ebola managed to killed over ~200 times less people in a longer period of time.
Why?
One reason is SARS-CoV-2 infects way more people than ebolaviruses
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1334712609669525505
https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/history/2014-2016-outbreak/index.html
4/Y
Besides death, there are a lot other things to be concerned about from COVID-19, such as:
- hospitalizations (ex: infection hospitalization rate, or IHR)
- long-term symptoms
Just looking at IFR misses those as well.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1390878012254601225
https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/research/2020/12/synopsis-ioannidis-studies-covid-19-infection-fatality-rates.pdf?la=en
Besides death, there are a lot other things to be concerned about from COVID-19, such as:
- hospitalizations (ex: infection hospitalization rate, or IHR)
- long-term symptoms
Just looking at IFR misses those as well.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1390878012254601225
https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/research/2020/12/synopsis-ioannidis-studies-covid-19-infection-fatality-rates.pdf?la=en
5/Y
The Ebola fallacy, or ebolavirus fallacy, is:
Emphasizing a lower IFR for SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 to make it look less dangerous than it actually is, while ignoring the other factors that make it dangerous (such as SARS-CoV-2 infecting many people to cause millions of deaths)
The Ebola fallacy, or ebolavirus fallacy, is:
Emphasizing a lower IFR for SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 to make it look less dangerous than it actually is, while ignoring the other factors that make it dangerous (such as SARS-CoV-2 infecting many people to cause millions of deaths)
6/Y
The fallacy appears pretty often.
For example, one main aim of measles vaccination was preventing hundreds of kids from dying of measles per year.
Similarly, COVID-19 killed hundreds of kids in the USA, and we have COVID-19 vaccines for that.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1390879816782684167
The fallacy appears pretty often.
For example, one main aim of measles vaccination was preventing hundreds of kids from dying of measles per year.
Similarly, COVID-19 killed hundreds of kids in the USA, and we have COVID-19 vaccines for that.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1390879816782684167
7/Y
But some critics avoiding addressing these hundreds of deaths in kids, by emphasizing that COVID-19 has a lower IFR than measles.
So they commit the ebolavirus fallacy to undermine the case for vaccinating kids.
https://twitter.com/JacobGudiol/status/1390211930858610689
https://twitter.com/PotterColonel/status/1391464641377628160
But some critics avoiding addressing these hundreds of deaths in kids, by emphasizing that COVID-19 has a lower IFR than measles.
So they commit the ebolavirus fallacy to undermine the case for vaccinating kids.
https://twitter.com/JacobGudiol/status/1390211930858610689
https://twitter.com/PotterColonel/status/1391464641377628160
8/Y
Example #2:
Denialists / contrarians like Jay Bhattacharya who under-estimate IFR, while converting it into a misleading survival rate + leaving out the large numbers of deaths that result from a large number of infections.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1387338738938826755
https://thehill.com/opinion/civil-rights/491731-civil-liberties-under-attack-during-covid-19
Example #2:
Denialists / contrarians like Jay Bhattacharya who under-estimate IFR, while converting it into a misleading survival rate + leaving out the large numbers of deaths that result from a large number of infections.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1387338738938826755
https://thehill.com/opinion/civil-rights/491731-civil-liberties-under-attack-during-covid-19
9/Y
Example #3:
Lockdowns occurred in response to ebolavirus, so lockdowns predate the COVID-19 pandemic.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1323250858168078336
Various anti-lockdown ideologues evade that by committing the ebolavirus fallacy.
https://twitter.com/mak3333/status/1344899576533282823
https://twitter.com/law_and_peace/status/1366201633898659844
Example #3:
Lockdowns occurred in response to ebolavirus, so lockdowns predate the COVID-19 pandemic.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1323250858168078336
Various anti-lockdown ideologues evade that by committing the ebolavirus fallacy.
https://twitter.com/mak3333/status/1344899576533282823
https://twitter.com/law_and_peace/status/1366201633898659844
10/Y
So feel free to be on the look-out for "the ebolavirus fallacy" in discussions of COVID-19 and other diseases. And feel free to cite this thread in response to instances of the fallacy.
Hopefully if enough people point this fallacy out, contrarians will stop exploiting it.
So feel free to be on the look-out for "the ebolavirus fallacy" in discussions of COVID-19 and other diseases. And feel free to cite this thread in response to instances of the fallacy.
Hopefully if enough people point this fallacy out, contrarians will stop exploiting it.
