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A large no. of Scots have been driven to want independence due to Brexit & Tory rule. We need the SNP & other progressives on board, to kick out the Tories from UK Government, & to get PR instead of FPTP in a Federal UK, with an elected upper house of Parliament. [THREAD]
I keep saying this - I fully understand the emotional argument for Scottish independence. As a Londoner, I feel the same way - I don't like being dictated to by a Tory government when London is a Labour-voting city.
There are many parallels between Scotland & London. We are both progressive places that respectively elect the SNP & Labour. We both voted to Remain in the EU, by around the same >60% margin. We both have devolved administrations. We are both dictated to by Tories in Westminster.
If anything, London has a larger population than Scotland. It has a larger economy than Scotland. London also has access to the ocean for trade via the River Thames, as Scotland has a large coastline. London has airports too. Surely London could also be independent?
Yet, there never seems to be any discussion of London becoming an independent city-state in mainstream political discourse. Quite frankly, I'm not writing this thread in order to set out the case for so-called Londependence.
What I'm saying, is that I fully understand the emotional argument for Scottish independence. There is logic and legitimacy behind it.
But unfortunately, the economic case for Scottish independence just simply isn't there. Perhaps it will be in the future.
But unfortunately, the economic case for Scottish independence just simply isn't there. Perhaps it will be in the future.
The economic case falls flat when examining the Scottish Government's spending. Scottish tax revenue is lower than their spending. Hence, the Scottish Government operates a deficit between income generated by taxation, and expenditure on public services.
This deficit is subsidised by the UK Government.
I love the fact that Scotland is generally more socially progressive than the rest of the UK. But how can it maintain high levels of public spending - as it does now - if Scotland were an independent country?
I love the fact that Scotland is generally more socially progressive than the rest of the UK. But how can it maintain high levels of public spending - as it does now - if Scotland were an independent country?
How can Scotland continue implementing progressive policies without Barnett consequentials from the UK Government to subsidise the Scottish income-expenditure deficit? The SNP have kept shying away from this, and they need to be honest.
As an independent country, in the best-case scenario Scotland would have to drastically reduce public spending, and in the worst-case scenario they would have to embark on an austerity agenda. The SNP once again need to make this clear. Any other argument is economic illiteracy.
The alternative to austerity is to invest your way out of a recession, by increasing borrowing, but how would that be possible in an independent Scotland which wouldn't have a central bank for its first few years? Unless Scotland want to rely on the IMF...
Speaking of a central bank, there's the currency issue. Sturgeon wants Scotland to keep the pound sterling (ÂŁ) in the first few years of an independent Scotland, as it sets up its own central bank.
Essentially, that means that Scotland's monetary policy will be controlled by the Bank of England. Hardly sounds like independence to me. Not to mention, the Tories probably wouldn't allow it anyway.
Then there's the border issue. Would there be a hard border - both before & after an independent Scotland would join the EU? Would they be allowed into the EU if Scotland (rightly & fairly) takes on a share of the UK's budget debt? The EU wouldn't want another bailout.
Would Scotland take on the Euro (âŹ) as their currency, joining the Eurozone? We've seen the problems caused at the Irish border& in the Irish Sea - problems caused by Brexit that an overwhelming majority of Scots rightly voted against.
I get that there is a strong desire for independence in Scotland. In yesterday's Scottish Parliament results, nationalist parties (SNP & Greens) won a majority of seats. But unionist parties won a majority of votes. So what is the will of Scotland? https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2021/may/09/scotland-independence-referendum-is-will-of-the-people-says-nicola-sturgeon-video
The issues in Scotland, such as austerity, cuts, neglecting Scotland, education, crime - these are caused by the Tories. The Tories are not the union. And independence won't solve those problems. An independent Scotland would need cuts.
So how can the effects of Tory cuts be solved by further cuts, simply because they would be done in Holyrood instead of Westminster?
The SNP have also failed in numerous areas, like education. So have the Tories, in England. There's no doubt that Sturgeon is a likeable & capable politician, and the SNP have policies that I wish existed in the rest of the UK. I'd choose her over Johnson any day.
But for failures, she must assume responsibility, not keep abdicating it and not blaming everything on the UK. Aside from the obvious and various failures of the UK's COVID handling, there have also been successes.
These include the furlough scheme - which an independent Scotland would not have been able to do - as well as the vaccine rollout.
We are always greater than the sum of our parts. And if progressives - including the SNP, Labour, Lib Dems, and Greens - can work together at a UK General Election, then we can implement PR & create a federal UK - solving the issue of autonomy & maintaining benefits of the Union.
