1/5 @AnnieAV98 @TheScarmind

How will the return of Artsakh (Shushi and Hadrut) to the Armenians begin?

We have to focus on what has been said for 30 years about peaceful settlement within the Minsk Group (mediated by France, the US and Russia).
2/5 The only country that has peacemakers in the region is Russia, so it will depend on Putin to solve this situation in its favor (Russia).

In the second meeting between Putin, Aliyev and Pashinyan, the corridors between AZ and Nachichevan were signed, why? to please Putin.
3/5 Before the expiration of the 5-year deadline signed between Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia, Putin is going to threaten Aliyev to join the Eurasian Economic Union (better to lose Artsakh than all of Azerbaijan).

Iran is a candidate for membership as a full member of the union
4/5 Aliyev owes a debt to Erdogan (Turkey), so he will reject the agreement, and that is where Russia will intervene, turning these peacekeepers into a real threat to Baku.
5/5 Aliyev, also being a pragmatic man like Putin, would rather refuse something that does not belong to him (Shushi and Hadrut), rather than lose the independence of Azerbaijan and the threat of Turkey.
You can follow @Davit_arm.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: