Thread by @ashishkjha, Wrote about why India likely has 25K+ deaths dailyPushback: we lack hard [...]

Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH

ashishkjha

Wrote about why India likely has 25K+ deaths daily

Pushback: we lack hard data on crematoriums so we can't be sure

True

But we get 25K+ deaths no matter how you look

Another approach:

400,000 cases, 22% test positivity

Likely means we're missing 90% of infections

Thread

Here's a way to think about it:

In the US, 60K cases from 3 weeks ago leading to 600 deaths today

A case fatality rate of 1%

But my best guess of infection fatality rate (IFR) in US now is 0.5%

So that means US missing half of infections

With a test positivity of 4%

2/5

So in the US, for every 25 test we perform, there is 1 positive

But we're still missing half the infections

In India, every 4 tests turns up 1 case

Meaning India missing a vast, vast majority of infections

Probably around 90%

So true # of infections in India closer to 4M

If India has same IFR as US does right now, then it would be 20K deaths

That's VERY unlikely

In the US, elderly all vaccinated. Infections primarily in young. And healthcare system here functioning fine

So estimated IFR in India around 1%

Which may mean about 40K deaths

3/4

Truth is, no one knows exactly how many Indians dying from COVID

We make estimates from cases, tests, IFR

And look at real world experiences: crematoriums, people's homes

I don't know exact number but I know this

There is immense suffering

And it must be brought to an end

You can follow @ashishkjha.

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