Wrote about why India likely has 25K+ deaths daily

Pushback: we lack hard data on crematoriums so we can& #39;t be sure

True

But we get 25K+ deaths no matter how you look

Another approach:

400,000 cases, 22% test positivity

Likely means we& #39;re missing 90% of infections

Thread

Here& #39;s a way to think about it:

In the US, 60K cases from 3 weeks ago leading to 600 deaths today

A case fatality rate of 1%

But my best guess of infection fatality rate (IFR) in US now is 0.5%

So that means US missing half of infections

With a test positivity of 4%

2/5

So in the US, for every 25 test we perform, there is 1 positive

But we& #39;re still missing half the infections

In India, every 4 tests turns up 1 case

Meaning India missing a vast, vast majority of infections

Probably around 90%

So true # of infections in India closer to 4M

If India has same IFR as US does right now, then it would be 20K deaths

That& #39;s VERY unlikely

In the US, elderly all vaccinated. Infections primarily in young. And healthcare system here functioning fine

So estimated IFR in India around 1%

Which may mean about 40K deaths

3/4

Truth is, no one knows exactly how many Indians dying from COVID

We make estimates from cases, tests, IFR

And look at real world experiences: crematoriums, people& #39;s homes

I don& #39;t know exact number but I know this

There is immense suffering

And it must be brought to an end