Wrote about why India likely has 25K+ deaths daily
Pushback: we lack hard data on crematoriums so we can't be sure
True
But we get 25K+ deaths no matter how you look
Another approach:
400,000 cases, 22% test positivity
Likely means we're missing 90% of infections
Thread
Pushback: we lack hard data on crematoriums so we can't be sure
True
But we get 25K+ deaths no matter how you look
Another approach:
400,000 cases, 22% test positivity
Likely means we're missing 90% of infections
Thread
Here's a way to think about it:
In the US, 60K cases from 3 weeks ago leading to 600 deaths today
A case fatality rate of 1%
But my best guess of infection fatality rate (IFR) in US now is 0.5%
So that means US missing half of infections
With a test positivity of 4%
2/5
In the US, 60K cases from 3 weeks ago leading to 600 deaths today
A case fatality rate of 1%
But my best guess of infection fatality rate (IFR) in US now is 0.5%
So that means US missing half of infections
With a test positivity of 4%
2/5
So in the US, for every 25 test we perform, there is 1 positive
But we're still missing half the infections
In India, every 4 tests turns up 1 case
Meaning India missing a vast, vast majority of infections
Probably around 90%
So true # of infections in India closer to 4M
But we're still missing half the infections
In India, every 4 tests turns up 1 case
Meaning India missing a vast, vast majority of infections
Probably around 90%
So true # of infections in India closer to 4M
If India has same IFR as US does right now, then it would be 20K deaths
That's VERY unlikely
In the US, elderly all vaccinated. Infections primarily in young. And healthcare system here functioning fine
So estimated IFR in India around 1%
Which may mean about 40K deaths
3/4
That's VERY unlikely
In the US, elderly all vaccinated. Infections primarily in young. And healthcare system here functioning fine
So estimated IFR in India around 1%
Which may mean about 40K deaths
3/4
Truth is, no one knows exactly how many Indians dying from COVID
We make estimates from cases, tests, IFR
And look at real world experiences: crematoriums, people's homes
I don't know exact number but I know this
There is immense suffering
And it must be brought to an end
We make estimates from cases, tests, IFR
And look at real world experiences: crematoriums, people's homes
I don't know exact number but I know this
There is immense suffering
And it must be brought to an end