What is happening in Palestine is a outrage but it reminds one of just how contextual geopolitics are, South Africa and Israel underwent reform agenda sin the 1990s. With the Cold War fading in the late 1980s, the apartheid in both places was embarrassing to the West. /1

South Africa, under the leadership of the ANC negotiated a full handover of the country towards full democracy, Nelson Mandela had to compromise on quite a lot, but the deed was done and South Africa was free. He did not make perfection the enemy of good. /2

In Israel, the Oslo Accords under Rabin achieved some initial progress, Netanyahu stoked the flames leading to Rabin’s death and tried to reverse it. In 1998 Olmert defeats him in an election and with a history making Clinton White House offers Yasser Arafat “The Deal”. /3

Israel would have withdrawn from the majority of settlements and given Palestine 75 % of the West Bank and all of the Gaza Strip. For better or worse, mistrust and decades of suspicions, the deal collapsed. 2000 was also the end of the post Cold War pre 9/11 happy hour lucky days

/5 The next year 9/11 hits along with the first Palestinian Intifada. Israel secured ever more relevance in American eyes as a “key partner on the war of terror”. Ariel Sharon tries to give peace one more try in 2005 but shortly after gets a stroke.

6/ if Nelson Mandela had been as strict and as unyielding as Arafat, South Africa would still be a apartheid state, with even more unghastly violence. But a white dominated South Africa would be a “Key partner on the war of terror”. By this point the bantustans would be formal.

7/ There is likely no twist of fate coming to help the Palestinians, they are open air prisoners on their own land. They have a fate that is gruesome among the colonized. Never underestimate the importance of timing on geopolitics, I never will.