There’s a lot of speculation that COVID may become less virulent. This is still an old concept in the field, akin to aerosol vs droplet. In my own field it was assumed that resistance came at the expense of virulence.

Until we saw the emergence of: MRSA USA-300 and USA-400, and now (in my area of research) the emergence of hypervirulent (ST23 with K1 CPS) Klebsiella pneumoniae that produce ESBLs and carbapenemase. https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/Emergence-of-hypervirulent-Klebsiella-pneumoniae-ST23-carrying-carbapenemase-genes.pdf

We're in a global emergency, we can't afford to assume best case and get it wrong. The caveat on superannuation returns applies "past performance is no guarantee of future performance".

We'd do well to consider Karl Popper's philosophy on falsifiability. We ignore black swans at our peril.

@geoffrey_hurst @YouAreLobbyLud @DrDayaSharma @drvyom @drajm @enenbee @profmiketoole @PMGPSC @kiai @kenpcg @ketaminh @NjbBari3