Read on Twitter
India reports another 400,000+ cases, 4000+ death day
A sustained level of horribleness
And its not correct
True number surely closer to 25,000 deaths, 2-5 million infections today
Lots of ways to estimate but here& #39;s a simple one
Look at the crematoriums
Thread
A sustained level of horribleness
And its not correct
True number surely closer to 25,000 deaths, 2-5 million infections today
Lots of ways to estimate but here& #39;s a simple one
Look at the crematoriums
Thread
During non-pandemic year 2019
About 27,000 Indians died on typical day
Crematoriums handle that level of deaths every day
Additional 4,000 deaths won& #39;t knock them off their feet
Crematoriums across the country reporting 2-4X normal business
2/4
About 27,000 Indians died on typical day
Crematoriums handle that level of deaths every day
Additional 4,000 deaths won& #39;t knock them off their feet
Crematoriums across the country reporting 2-4X normal business
2/4
So best estimate 55K to 80K people dying daily in India
If you assume baseline deaths of 25-30K
COVID likely causing additional 25K to 50K deaths daily
Not 4,000
What about infections?
Lets start with Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR)
In India, at least 1% right now
3/5
If you assume baseline deaths of 25-30K
COVID likely causing additional 25K to 50K deaths daily
Not 4,000
What about infections?
Lets start with Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR)
In India, at least 1% right now
3/5
You might say -- woah, that& #39;s high
In US its about 0.6% and India has a younger population
BUT
Indian healthcare system has collapsed,
People dying for lack of oxygen
So IFR of 1% is reasonable, may even too low
Which would put daily infections at 2.5 to 5M / day
4/5
In US its about 0.6% and India has a younger population
BUT
Indian healthcare system has collapsed,
People dying for lack of oxygen
So IFR of 1% is reasonable, may even too low
Which would put daily infections at 2.5 to 5M / day
4/5
