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Situation continues to deteriorate.
There's a weekly cycle in testing numbers, so best to compare weekly. Comparing Fri (7/5) with Fri (30/4) daily tests (25,200) almost indentical. Everything else has got worse. 1/9 https://twitter.com/ihplk/status/1391021404930252803
There's a weekly cycle in testing numbers, so best to compare weekly. Comparing Fri (7/5) with Fri (30/4) daily tests (25,200) almost indentical. Everything else has got worse. 1/9 https://twitter.com/ihplk/status/1391021404930252803
Detected cases are up 15%, testing intensity (TCR) is down 13%, deaths up 70% from 11 to 19 with the 7d smoothed death trend doubling to 9 deaths/day. 2/9 https://twitter.com/ihplk/status/1388383946782642177
Testing capacity is now a problem. Our inability to raise testing consistently above 25K despite the surge due to many factors. PHIs, swabbing staff are overwhelmedâthey are all humanâand lab staff are being stretched. Just getting more collection/test kits isn't adequate. 3/9
We need to sustain testing at 25K/d for next year to prevent new outbreaks and to allow international arrivals, even if we stop this wave. This needs much bigger, automated machines than we have, and streamlining of the process that hasn't happened after 12 mos. 4/9
Given that we are still going in the wrong direction, we need a lockdown and a pause in all non-essential arrivals. Not b'cos I am sure it will work (I am not), but given we are failing to slow the virus, we need to do everything we can to slow it, and hope some of it works. 5/9
Lockdowns have not consistently worked, esp in developing countries. For dense areas in Colombo, confining people at home may accelerate spread. But it would make ppl understand how serious things are and shift behaviours, and gives frontline staff space & slow spread btwn areas.
A sudden lockdown (which we are on track for) might make things worse.
Govt needs to make a firm decision, let everyone know 48h in advance to allow ppl/business to prepare and then lockdown, with a clear set of infection targets to meet before lifting it. 7/9
Govt needs to make a firm decision, let everyone know 48h in advance to allow ppl/business to prepare and then lockdown, with a clear set of infection targets to meet before lifting it. 7/9
It won't be enough. We also need to ramp testing/stretch our capacity more efficiently, and the military will need to set up isolation facilities to place infected ppl to break transmission, since clearly our hospitals can no longer cope and keeping ppl at home will not work. 8/9
Ppl voted for pro-active, effective govt, rejecting dithering, conflicted governance where sectional concerns overrode national interest & ignored intelligence/evidence. There needs to be serious thinking @GotabayaR @PresRajapaksa. Will they act or force voters to do a retake?
