Staff @SanctuaryTO (myself, @c_shadowspaces, @lorrainelamchop) completed counts for a reasonable estimate of homeless people in Toronto.

In areas less familiar we asked reliable friends/orgs.

TOTAL TENT COUNT: 419
TOTAL TTC COUNT/EST 206
TOTAL OUTDOOR EST 1034
(More to come)

For the tent count, this is tents (or similar tarp/foam structures) and tiny houses (or similar wooden structures) combined.

72% of tents observed by Greg, Lorraine, or me
16% counted by trusted friends/orgs
12% estimated from areas not observed

I estimate 1.5 people per tent.

Last year, I argued for 2 person per tent (ppt) estimate. That went way down over the winter (0.8ppt?) with 1) people maintaining tents even while often not sleeping in them 2) many having both a tiny house and a tent for storage. That has risen significantly again to ~1.5ppt. https://twitter.com/djjohnso/status/1336434633261658114

For TTC/Union Stn count, 206 is based on:

-2.78 people per train in 9 Line 1/Line 2 trains observed this past Thursday from 11pm-1am
-Estimated 45 trains on Lines 1 & 2 based on 5-6 minute spacing
-27 people observed, with a multiplier of 3, in stations, on platforms, etc.

This corresponds well to my minimum estimate of 200 sleeping on TTC from the thread here (quite possible it was higher in the winter).

Note that, best I can tell, @cityoftoronto's outdoor homeless counts completely over look these people. https://twitter.com/djjohnso/status/1328807841084399628

Two other estimates that are more educated guesses and one that is an extrapolation based on national data + inquiry w/reliable person familiar w/system:

Guestimates
75 - sleeping in parking garages
125 - otherwise outdoors

Extrapolated
763 - Violence Against Women shelters

Avg of 2-nights (April 25 & 28) in Toronto's regular shelter system:

5,867

Based on a number of factors, including how I analyze Toronto's published "actively homeless" https://www.toronto.ca/city-government/data-research-maps/research-reports/housing-and-homelessness-research-and-reports/shelter-system-flow-data/:

1650 - Estimated other homeless (esp couch surfers who sometimes use shelter)

Why the 2200 drop in Toronto's count of "actively homeless" from Jan 2020 to now?

- ~1500 person drop in refugee/immigrant homeless population in Toronto
-poor estimate of those not accessing system due to Covid

GRAND TOTAL would be just over 9300 currently homeless in Toronto

A reasonable estimate of the maximum number that can slept between Toronto's regular shelter system and the provincially run Violence Against Women system is around 7300.

There are about 2000 people homeless each night in Toronto that cannot currently be sheltered.