Read on Twitter
Article thread | Points of No Return
Great (long) summary of 7 of the most important climate tipping points.
1/14 https://twitter.com/grist/status/1385669938010984450
Great (long) summary of 7 of the most important climate tipping points.
1/14 https://twitter.com/grist/status/1385669938010984450
2/14 Consider the following coin flip bet: pay ๐
& get:
- ๐ญ๐ฌ๐ on head
- ๐ฌ on tail.
Should you play? Expectation is a profit of ๐ฐ๐ .
The answer is: it depends. If losing ๐ would bankrupt you, do not play.
Life/death decisions are difficult to "optimize".
- ๐ญ๐ฌ๐ on head
- ๐ฌ on tail.
Should you play? Expectation is a profit of ๐ฐ๐ .
The answer is: it depends. If losing ๐ would bankrupt you, do not play.
Life/death decisions are difficult to "optimize".
3/14 Nature plays in a different league re energy: "Scientists estimate that the energy [the Gulf Stream] transports is roughly equivalent to the power provided by 1 ๐ฎ๐ช๐ญ๐ญ๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ average-sized nuclear plants".
(The world economy runs on the equivalent of ~17k nukes.)
![3/14 Nature plays in a different league re energy: "Scientists estimate that the energy [the Gulf Stream] transports is roughly equivalent to the power provided by 1 ๐ฎ๐ช๐ญ๐ญ๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ average-sized nuclear plants". (The world economy runs on the equivalent of ~17k nukes.)](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E04SihQWQAIZYgU.png "3/14 Nature plays in a different league re energy: \"Scientists estimate that the energy [the Gulf Stream] transports is roughly equivalent to the power provided by 1 ๐ฎ๐ช๐ญ๐ญ๐ช๐ฐ๐ฏ average-sized nuclear plants\". (The world economy runs on the equivalent of ~17k nukes.)")
(The world economy runs on the equivalent of ~17k nukes.)
4/14 Coral reefs feed 500MM people.
5/14 Tipping points are surprise packages, it's difficult to know when they will trigger. Possibly still in a few decades or maybe they are already close to triggering. C.f. Greenland.
6/14 Or worst case, tipping points have already been triggered (cc Nordhaus), c.f. West Antarctica potentially raising sea levels by a few feet...
7/14 ...or same with permafrost melting, now adding 0.3 - 0.6 GtCO2/year (total anthropogenic emissions are 50 GtCO2(eq)/year).
8/14 Over longer time periods (who cares about life in 100 years anyway?), a lot more can obviously come "online".
9/14 With side effects like more frequent "zombie fires".
10/14 Some feedbacks are negative though (i.e. not reinforcing/slowing), e.g. shift in vegetation that might actually store more carbon.
11/14 The broad trend is that it's likely to go in the wrong direction. A gigatonne here, a gigatonne there and it starts to add up...
12/14 ... especially as more sources turn from carbon sinks to carbon sources; e.g. potentially the Amazon rainforest by 2035. (Will carbon offsets still work there if they bear "negative interest rates"?)
13/14 And some other fancy non-climate-related tipping points for rainforests.
14/14 The first rule of Fight Club is...
