Police in Jerusalem doing absolutely everything wrong since the beginning of Ramadan and as a result we’ve the worst clashes in the city since 2017. The easy conclusion is that Netanyahu wants an escalation to disrupt the formation of a new government without him. That’s not it.>

Behind Netanyahu’s warmongering image is a cautious and risk-averse politician. It’s no coincidence there’s been no intifada on his watch. He talks tough but in E Jerusalem and the West Bank he’s avoided major escalations. The police’s heavy-handedness now isn’t on his orders.>

If anything, what we’re seeing in Jerusalem is a result of Netanyahu’s absence. He’s too preoccupied with his imminent political demise. Meanwhile the top cops, commissioner, Jerusalem district commander and public security minister are all inexperienced blundering bullies.>

It didn’t need a genius to work out that with Ramadan taking place after a year of Covid economic depression in E Jerusalem, the Sheikh Jarrah eviction trial ruling and the Palestinian election (now cancelled) and the Jewish supremacists in ascendancy, things would kick off.>

As PM, Netanyahu’s to blame for this situation, but not because he’s directing the police violence, but because his focus on his personal fate is the reason for the leadership vacuum and lack of any strategic thinking that could have helped calm down matters in E Jerusalem.>

And of course it’s Netanyahu’s fault in helping the far-right, bringing Jewish Power in to the Knesset to boost his shrinking coalition, inadvertently legitimizing them and swelling their numbers on Jerusalem’s streets lead by Ben-Gvir, who thanks to him now has an MK’s immunity.

In Jerusalem, the epicenter of a religious and national conflict, where 40% of residents lack equal rights and access to resources, it doesn’t have to be direct orders sparking off major clashes. The lack of a functioning and focused government is enough. That’s Netanyahu’s fault

FWIW (and I may regret this prediction) I think that after 2-3 more rough nights, this will die down mid-week after Ramadan and Jerusalem Day. I don’t think there’s the dynamic in place for a bigger escalation. But if I’m wrong, it’s Netanyahu’s fault by omission, not intention.