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REPORT YOUR NON-REACTION
In science, negative results are just as important as positive results. It is just as useful to know that a hypothesis is wrong as it is to prove it correct. But there is a well-known phenomenon in science – /1
In science, negative results are just as important as positive results. It is just as useful to know that a hypothesis is wrong as it is to prove it correct. But there is a well-known phenomenon in science – /1
negative results are systematically underreported.
The reason why is pretty obvious. Negative results are boring. Nobody ever got tenure saying “I spent two years examining the question and the answer is ‘no.’” /2
The reason why is pretty obvious. Negative results are boring. Nobody ever got tenure saying “I spent two years examining the question and the answer is ‘no.’” /2
No researcher gets a new grant to explore the reasons for his recent failure.
The same is true in social media. A post that says “I went to the store, bought bread, and came home” does not get shared, re-tweeted or clicked. Nobody notices normal. /3
The same is true in social media. A post that says “I went to the store, bought bread, and came home” does not get shared, re-tweeted or clicked. Nobody notices normal. /3
The media that goes viral is about the abnormal and the extraordinary.
This is especially true about the Covid-19 vaccine. Everyone reports their adverse reactions – “I had fever or chills or I was out for 3 days.” Nobody reports the negative result – /4
This is especially true about the Covid-19 vaccine. Everyone reports their adverse reactions – “I had fever or chills or I was out for 3 days.” Nobody reports the negative result – /4
But even when folks follow this up with “but it was worth it” the subliminal message is clear: the second shot is going to be scary.
I know I was scared. Not enough to forgo the shot, but for some people, the fear will overcome their rationality. And so, for society’s /5
I know I was scared. Not enough to forgo the shot, but for some people, the fear will overcome their rationality. And so, for society’s /5
sake, we need to report the negative results. We need everyone to take the shot and we need those who are hesitating to know that the anecdotal reports they see about how bad it is are skewed by a reporting bias. /6
What little data I can find says that serious reactions are running around 15-20% and really severe ones are minuscule.
And so, I report my own result – not to celebrate it (OK, a little) but to let everyone know. 48 hours after my second shot the only thing that happened is /7
And so, I report my own result – not to celebrate it (OK, a little) but to let everyone know. 48 hours after my second shot the only thing that happened is /7
that I had a sore arm and was a bit achy with a headache that evening. My entire treatment was 2 Tylenol before bed and 2 more when I got up. That’s it.
You wouldn’t know it from Twitter or Facebook, but that is much the more typical and common result. /8
You wouldn’t know it from Twitter or Facebook, but that is much the more typical and common result. /8
So, for everyone’s sake, let’s change the narrative. Report your negative results – report the fact that you had very little reaction to the shots. Do it to celebrate your own good fortune. But more importantly, do it so that your friends and their friends know. /fin
