Before the final results in Scotland, a reminder:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat">These are national parliamentary elections. Not local.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat">The most prominent issue in them has been whether one nation (Scotland) should hold a referendum on leaving union of nations (UK). /1.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat">A parliamentary majority for an independence referendum will be just that. Given Scotland’s proportional voting system, that’s as good & constitutionally sound an expression of democratic will as you’ll find. (Note: in a Westminster system, the SNP would have 80%+ of MSPs). /2.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat">Such a majority looks likely: SNP + Greens. We’ll find out later.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat">It’s possible, but less likely, that the SNP will achieve a governing majority on its own: 65 or more MSPs out of 129. More likely: SNP just below that, & a governing majority in coalition with the Greens. /3.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat">Either way, a Scottish parliamentary majority for an independence referendum, & a governing majority for independence, would firmly place the onus on those who disagree to demonstrate that they have a better alternative. /4.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat">And: both at the UK level & within Scotland, to explain the democratic & constitutional basis for it.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat">And: in Scotland, to win a majority in the new Parliament for their position. /5.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat">Opinion polls &, very likely, the results of this election, show Scotland to be roughly evenly split on independence. That offers plenty of space for each side to make their arguments. /6.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat">But no one, like the SNP or loathe it, can reasonably deny the extraordinary feat, & relevance, of them winning (as looks certain) a fourth consecutive national election victory. And (as looks very likely) another pro-independence governing majority. /7.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat">Unless there’s a dramatic shift in governance of the UK & its relationship to the European continent - reversing the 127 days of destructive chaos so far - the Union will continue to tear itself apart. /8. End

Correction: slight typo in tweet 1. Should be “a union”.