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Yesterday's UK 
how were my projections & what does the data used for decisions look like?
Including CTA and removing silly places we ended up with 14 on the 'practical' Green list
Of the 14 I correctly got guessed 12, but of the 24 I predicted only 12 were Green
1/
how were my projections & what does the data used for decisions look like?Including CTA and removing silly places we ended up with 14 on the 'practical' Green list
Of the 14 I correctly got guessed 12, but of the 24 I predicted only 12 were Green
1/
At best a mixed result, but lets see if we can learn from it to do better in 3 weeks time
The Gov published some data here - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/data-informing-international-travel-traffic-light-risk-assessments/risk-assessment-methodology-data
Showing their decisions but rather unhelpfully it doesn't show the countries that didn't make Green .. only those moved.
2/
The Gov published some data here - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/data-informing-international-travel-traffic-light-risk-assessments/risk-assessment-methodology-data
Showing their decisions but rather unhelpfully it doesn't show the countries that didn't make Green .. only those moved.
2/
A few points are obvious
- Heavy reliance is placed on post travel Test & Trace data .. it's positive rate and variant sequencing outcomes.
- Public metrics match my guesses, though not sure sequences uploaded to GISAID is that useful for genomic sequencing ability proxy?
3/
- Heavy reliance is placed on post travel Test & Trace data .. it's positive rate and variant sequencing outcomes.
- Public metrics match my guesses, though not sure sequences uploaded to GISAID is that useful for genomic sequencing ability proxy?
3/
Overall hard to make sense of Test & Trace measure given values of 2 or less are redacted as *
Of around 2000 travellers in last month tested coming back from the new Green countries nly 3 positives are reported definitely ( and perhaps a few more redacted )
4/
Of around 2000 travellers in last month tested coming back from the new Green countries nly 3 positives are reported definitely ( and perhaps a few more redacted )
4/
Equally though from the Red Zone countries not exactly that many testing positive (about 52 out of 2341 ) and nothing above 'redacted' level showing up as indicating variant presence.
Without the counter factual of the countries that didn't move can't say much more
5/
Without the counter factual of the countries that didn't move can't say much more
5/
Other than Test&Trace metrics they are using
- Case incidence
- Test Rates
- Test Positivity
- Vaccine Doses
All are in my 'Traffic light score'
Also # of sequences uploaded to GISAID but given they approved Falklands with 0 and Brunei with 10 guess this isn't important.
6/
- Case incidence
- Test Rates
- Test Positivity
- Vaccine Doses
All are in my 'Traffic light score'
Also # of sequences uploaded to GISAID but given they approved Falklands with 0 and Brunei with 10 guess this isn't important.
6/
So in summary
The Variant stuff & returned traveller metrics will continue to be a 'wildcard' as we can't get that data
Other stuff pretty easy to predict
Lack of transparency on coutnries that didn't move makes analysis hard as you can't work out thresholds.
7/
The Variant stuff & returned traveller metrics will continue to be a 'wildcard' as we can't get that data
Other stuff pretty easy to predict
Lack of transparency on coutnries that didn't move makes analysis hard as you can't work out thresholds.
7/
Back to the projections and where I went wrong and where it looks like they made odd decisions
Malta - Makes no sense to have left Malta off
- high vaccine coverage, low rates good testing - can't explain this oversight. Test & Trace data for Malta won't fill the gap
8/
Malta - Makes no sense to have left Malta off
- high vaccine coverage, low rates good testing - can't explain this oversight. Test & Trace data for Malta won't fill the gap8/
Finland & Norway - Perhaps lower vaccination rates hurt them, and slightly higher incidence in Norway, but still seems very harsh ( and on the vaccination rate they approved Brunei and Aus/NZ where almost nobody's been 
) .. Again struggle with their decision here to deny
9/
) .. Again struggle with their decision here to deny 9/
Further afield it's a bit more random (and irrelevant for UK travellers) but
Saudi Arabia should have had a good chance, not sure why it was denied
Fiji, South Korea, Taiwan.. hard to see how Brunei, Singapore & Oz/NZ got but these didn't, little difference in stats.
10/
Saudi Arabia should have had a good chance, not sure why it was denied
Fiji, South Korea, Taiwan.. hard to see how Brunei, Singapore & Oz/NZ got
but these didn't, little difference in stats.10/
My remaining relied on them being less strict and I think are explainable by the bar being set too high at the start
That's Antigua, Barbados & St. Lucia
Otherwise I missed selecting Brunei & Faroes for as I assumed 
(I probably didn't think about them too much)
11/
relied on them being less strict and I think are explainable by the bar being set too high at the start That's Antigua, Barbados & St. Lucia
Otherwise I missed selecting Brunei & Faroes for
as I assumed (I probably didn't think about them too much) 11/
As regards the 
additions (& non removals) it's hard from the data to see all the logic but thoughts here-
Nepal - Hard to argue with this given situation there currently, had I thought about it more I probably would have suggestedtoo
12/
additions (& non removals) it's hard from the data to see all the logic but thoughts here-Nepal - Hard to argue with this given situation there currently, had I thought about it more I probably would have suggested
too12/
Maldives -Thought they would escape as they are small in terms of risk size. Test & Trace data in the report doesn't show any issue and they have good vaccine coverage, albeit high case rate now.
Victims of being near India on the map I guess, but then why not Sri Lanka ?
13/
Victims of being near India on the map I guess, but then why not Sri Lanka ?
13/
Turkey - I flagged this as a risk a while back https://twitter.com/EvilDoctorK/status/1382619383785271299?s=20 but I thought that the risk had subsided now as their figures went down and as they weren't added at the same time as India then they wouldn't be.
14/
14/
UAE & Seychelles
I thought they both had a shot at escaping to. As they didn't change tier we have no data to look at unfortunately.
I suspect UAE it's still the 'hubs' problem driving it unfortunately. Not clear short term how that gets fixed.
15/
I thought they both had a shot at escaping to
. As they didn't change tier we have no data to look at unfortunately.I suspect UAE it's still the 'hubs' problem driving it unfortunately. Not clear short term how that gets fixed.
15/
Also to mention
- No Island Rule ( no surprise in my book as I've been saying ) .. may come yet, but no sign of it yet.
Update to the ratings in 3 weeks ( from yestedray or from 17th May?) let's see if we can do better next time!
I'll do the normal stats thread later!
/ends
- No Island Rule ( no surprise in my book as I've been saying ) .. may come yet, but no sign of it yet.
Update to the ratings in 3 weeks ( from yestedray or from 17th May?) let's see if we can do better next time!
I'll do the normal stats thread later!
/ends
