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Yesterday& #39;s UK 
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚦" title="Vertikale Verkehrsampel" aria-label="Emoji: Vertikale Verkehrsampel"> how were my projections & what does the data used for decisions look like?
Including CTA and removing silly places we ended up with 14 on the & #39;practical& #39; Green list
Of the 14 I correctly got guessed 12, but of the 24 I predicted only 12 were Green
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Including CTA and removing silly places we ended up with 14 on the & #39;practical& #39; Green list
Of the 14 I correctly got guessed 12, but of the 24 I predicted only 12 were Green
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how were my projections & what does the data used for decisions look like?Including CTA and removing silly places we ended up with 14 on the & #39;practical& #39; Green listOf the 14 I correctly got guessed 12, but of the 24 I predicted only 12 were Green1/" title="Yesterday& #39;s UK https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚦" title="Vertikale Verkehrsampel" aria-label="Emoji: Vertikale Verkehrsampel"> how were my projections & what does the data used for decisions look like?Including CTA and removing silly places we ended up with 14 on the & #39;practical& #39; Green listOf the 14 I correctly got guessed 12, but of the 24 I predicted only 12 were Green1/">
how were my projections & what does the data used for decisions look like?Including CTA and removing silly places we ended up with 14 on the & #39;practical& #39; Green listOf the 14 I correctly got guessed 12, but of the 24 I predicted only 12 were Green1/" title="Yesterday& #39;s UK https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚦" title="Vertikale Verkehrsampel" aria-label="Emoji: Vertikale Verkehrsampel"> how were my projections & what does the data used for decisions look like?Including CTA and removing silly places we ended up with 14 on the & #39;practical& #39; Green listOf the 14 I correctly got guessed 12, but of the 24 I predicted only 12 were Green1/">
At best a mixed result, but lets see if we can learn from it to do better in 3 weeks time
The Gov published some data here - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/data-informing-international-travel-traffic-light-risk-assessments/risk-assessment-methodology-data
Showing">https://www.gov.uk/governmen... their decisions but rather unhelpfully it doesn& #39;t show the countries that didn& #39;t make Green .. only those moved.
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The Gov published some data here - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/data-informing-international-travel-traffic-light-risk-assessments/risk-assessment-methodology-data
Showing">https://www.gov.uk/governmen... their decisions but rather unhelpfully it doesn& #39;t show the countries that didn& #39;t make Green .. only those moved.
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A few points are obvious
- Heavy reliance is placed on post travel Test & Trace data .. it& #39;s positive rate and variant sequencing outcomes.
- Public metrics match my guesses, though not sure sequences uploaded to GISAID is that useful for genomic sequencing ability proxy?
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- Heavy reliance is placed on post travel Test & Trace data .. it& #39;s positive rate and variant sequencing outcomes.
- Public metrics match my guesses, though not sure sequences uploaded to GISAID is that useful for genomic sequencing ability proxy?
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Overall hard to make sense of Test & Trace measure given values of 2 or less are redacted as *
Of around 2000 travellers in last month tested coming back from the new Green countries nly 3 positives are reported definitely ( and perhaps a few more redacted )
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Of around 2000 travellers in last month tested coming back from the new Green countries nly 3 positives are reported definitely ( and perhaps a few more redacted )
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Equally though from the Red Zone countries not exactly that many testing positive (about 52 out of 2341 ) and nothing above & #39;redacted& #39; level showing up as indicating variant presence.
Without the counter factual of the countries that didn& #39;t move can& #39;t say much more
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Without the counter factual of the countries that didn& #39;t move can& #39;t say much more
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Other than Test&Trace metrics they are using
- Case incidence
- Test Rates
- Test Positivity
- Vaccine Doses
All are in my & #39;Traffic light score& #39;
Also # of sequences uploaded to GISAID but given they approved Falklands with 0 and Brunei with 10 guess this isn& #39;t important.
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- Case incidence
- Test Rates
- Test Positivity
- Vaccine Doses
All are in my & #39;Traffic light score& #39;
Also # of sequences uploaded to GISAID but given they approved Falklands with 0 and Brunei with 10 guess this isn& #39;t important.
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So in summary
The Variant stuff & returned traveller metrics will continue to be a & #39;wildcard& #39; as we can& #39;t get that data
Other stuff pretty easy to predict
Lack of transparency on coutnries that didn& #39;t move makes analysis hard as you can& #39;t work out thresholds.
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The Variant stuff & returned traveller metrics will continue to be a & #39;wildcard& #39; as we can& #39;t get that data
Other stuff pretty easy to predict
Lack of transparency on coutnries that didn& #39;t move makes analysis hard as you can& #39;t work out thresholds.
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Back to the projections and where I went wrong and where it looks like they made odd decisions
Malta - Makes no sense to have left Malta offhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟩" title="Grünes Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Grünes Quadrat"> - high vaccine coverage, low rates good testing - can& #39;t explain this oversight. Test & Trace data for Malta won& #39;t fill the gap
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Malta - Makes no sense to have left Malta off
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Finland & Norway - Perhaps lower vaccination rates hurt them, and slightly higher incidence in Norway, but still seems very harsh ( and on the vaccination rate they approved Brunei and Aus/NZ where almost nobody& #39;s been https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💉" title="Spritze" aria-label="Emoji: Spritze">) .. Again struggle with their decision here to deny https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟩" title="Grünes Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Grünes Quadrat">
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Further afield it& #39;s a bit more random (and irrelevant for UK travellers) but
Saudi Arabia should have had a good chance, not sure why it was denied
Fiji, South Korea, Taiwan.. hard to see how Brunei, Singapore & Oz/NZ gothttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟩" title="Grünes Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Grünes Quadrat"> but these didn& #39;t, little difference in stats.
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Saudi Arabia should have had a good chance, not sure why it was denied
Fiji, South Korea, Taiwan.. hard to see how Brunei, Singapore & Oz/NZ got
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My remaininghttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟩" title="Grünes Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Grünes Quadrat"> relied on them being less strict and I think are explainable by the bar being set too high at the start
That& #39;s Antigua, Barbados & St. Lucia
Otherwise I missed selecting Brunei & Faroes forhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟩" title="Grünes Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Grünes Quadrat"> as I assumed https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟨" title="Gelbes Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Gelbes Quadrat"> (I probably didn& #39;t think about them too much)
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That& #39;s Antigua, Barbados & St. Lucia
Otherwise I missed selecting Brunei & Faroes for
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As regards the https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟥" title="Rotes Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Rotes Quadrat">additions (& non removals) it& #39;s hard from the data to see all the logic but thoughts here-
Nepal - Hard to argue with this given situation there currently, had I thought about it more I probably would have suggestedhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟥" title="Rotes Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Rotes Quadrat">too
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Nepal - Hard to argue with this given situation there currently, had I thought about it more I probably would have suggested
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Maldives -Thought they would escape as they are small in terms of risk size. Test & Trace data in the report doesn& #39;t show any issue and they have good vaccine coverage, albeit high case rate now.
Victims of being near India on the map I guess, but then why not Sri Lanka ?
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Victims of being near India on the map I guess, but then why not Sri Lanka ?
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Turkey - I flagged this as a risk a while back https://twitter.com/EvilDoctorK/status/1382619383785271299?s=20">https://twitter.com/EvilDocto... but I thought that the risk had subsided now as their figures went down and as they weren& #39;t added at the same time as India then they wouldn& #39;t be.
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UAE & Seychelles
I thought they both had a shot at escaping tohttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🟨" title="Gelbes Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Gelbes Quadrat">. As they didn& #39;t change tier we have no data to look at unfortunately.
I suspect UAE it& #39;s still the & #39;hubs& #39; problem driving it unfortunately. Not clear short term how that gets fixed.
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I thought they both had a shot at escaping to
I suspect UAE it& #39;s still the & #39;hubs& #39; problem driving it unfortunately. Not clear short term how that gets fixed.
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