This truly is an awful piece deserving of all the criticism it's received from Nigerians. Its core arguments are poorly argued, and totally divorced from the daily experiences of Nigerians in Nigeria.

I'll share some thoughts in a long-ish #thread https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/africa/2021-05-05/dont-call-nigeria-failed-state

I don't care for the "failed states" thesis, and I've said so often. It's a colonial, analytically useless term which conflates symptoms with causes, is too all-encompassing and ignores the relationship between the state and society.

Thus, its invocation is the first red flag.

The doubling down on the "failed states" nonsense and the reference to John Campbell - presumably as one of the "well respected analysts" - is red flag #2.

The many flaws in Campbell's work have been discussed ad nauseum, and I don't intend to litigate them here and now.

Zoning in Nigeria is an elite pact which largely benefits powerful elites from key constituencies. By any observable standard, the Nigerian state is weaker and less resilient today than it was in 2001.

The main argument here is absurd and frankly insensitive to Nigerians.

This is dubious framing and is throwing too many things together at once. It posits Nigeria's heterogeneity as a congenital difficulty to overcome.

Why not interrogate the source of this supposed "identity problem", rather than take it as a given that materialized from thin air?

A few things wrong here, but I'm gonna hone in on this point @OlufemiOTaiwo made. The authors deem it useful to cite a survey conducted in 2009 to talk about 2021.

Also, the association of "national identity" and Weberian statehood with state failure informs about very little.

Again with the positing of "strong communal identities" as a cause of political violence rather than a driver, alongside more proximate issues.

How do people writing about Nigeria not understand its complexities around identity, leading them to make strange leaps of logic?

This is sloppy analysis at best, and motivated reasoning at worst. The authors make no attempt to demonstrate a link between "a unifying national identity" and "greater political inclusion".

Nor do they look at zoning on the state level, where its track record is more tenuous.

Much of the literature on consociationalism & power sharing in Africa suggests it doesn't necessarily improve governance nor lead to inclusive politics.

Very often, it merely rewards elites who can maximize violence and fraud to achieve their ends. And that's Nigeria's story.

This is nonsense. Sorry, i'm not real good at mincing words.

High levels of support for the Super Eagles and "shared pride" in the global success of Nigerian entertainers always has been true & continues to be so in spite of Nigeria's political institutions, not because of them.

State creation, zoning and federal character are expressions of elite patronage & rentseeking.

Here, the authors ignore a ton of evidence of increased violence and the Nigerian state's inability to control it, while they credit political elites for things they mostly didn't do.

Might I add the bar for "return to widespread violence" is decidedly low? Only if you deem formal declarations of war as the threshold to meet is this accurate.

As I said a few days ago, it's actually tough to recall a period Nigeria *hasn't* had scattered pockets of violence.

There's a lot going on here. Firstly, Lagos as a model of "innovation at the state level" is true only if you deem tax generation to be the sole function of a state.

Lagos can't build an integrated transport system and its finances are shrouded in opacity.

Ki l'eleyii?

And is Kaduna - one of Nigeria's epicenters of kidnapping, banditry, communal violence and subnational authoritarianism - really an example for these authors to cite?

Nigerians likely support these regional security outfits but the circumstances leading to their creation matter.

I agree with much of this conclusion, albeit for different reasons. I've often said Nigeria's cultural exports, favorable geography, the ingenuity and participatory spirit of its youths are assets.

"Failed state" is a racist, colonial trope the authors shouldn't be invoking.

When people with the academic and theoretical knowledge, but have little understanding of societies they write about & rarely interact with Africans outside elite circles get to shape knowledge about Africa, you get this piece.

That the co-author is Nigerian makes it worse. #END