So education has replaced class as the new divide; but one thing remains constant: the Conservatives usually know how to win votes while Labour struggles. Thursday was just confirmation of that. Starmer has his faults, but look to History for the basic explanation.

This is because Labour has been bad at creating electoral coalitions that work under FPTP. It has relied on Conseravtive failure to deliver it majorities (even in 1997). Attlee was gifted his majority by Dunkirk - he was no strategic genius.

Starmer hoped COVID would be his Dunkirk - it would mean he did not need to do more than the bare minimum to recover from 2019 - & cause no more than the minimum trouble with members. Well, COVID has not highlighted a failed Con govt to enough voters. Thursday results show that.

So can Starmer buck the historical trend and actively create an electoral coalition that succeeds under FPTP while many do not think Johnson a failure? Can he get Lab to cross the education divide like it rarely did with the class divide? Do Lab members even want that?

Britain is more divided than ever & Lab members mostly on one side of that divide - & many appear very happy in that. To create a viable coalition will challenge many of their prejudices & mean Starmer will face much opposition. There is a reason why Lab relies on Con failure.

It is an institutional basket-case with diverse centres of influence & a political culture that privileges a mythical idea of the past & ideological authenticity over building coalitions - a spurious purity over power. No wonder most leaders fail to make much headway.

It'll come as no surprise *if* @Keir_Starmer does *not* make a vigorous response to Thurs but bumbles along hoping Johnson will show himself up to the satisfaction of most voters. Members left & right will complain but they'll secretly be happy, comfortable in their prejudices.

Dumb luck does work for Lab every 15-20 years. So far I've seen some little bits of good advice (& lots of bad) for @Keir_Starmer but he *essentially* needs to stand outside the historical pattern I've described, to be the solution and not part of the problem.

That's it. If you want to know more, I'm currently available for weddings, bar-mitzvahs & funerals.