Read on Twitter
Informative thread on B1617 in England. I disagree that the only thing that matters is that vaccines protect against severe outcomes. If vaccines are less effective against non-severe illness, the vaccinated can spread it to the unvaccinated and that has important consequences. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1390666071724765185
In this other thread on Seychelles’ failed reopening, he explains that the surge they’re experiencing despite a 60% vaccination rate can be partly explained by the 50% efficacy of the sinopharm vaccine against mild illness + the surge is occurring mostly among the unvaccinated. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1389955259410354177
In other words, the ability to reopen safely depends on the vaccination rate *and* transmissibility of the virus *and* the efficacy of the vaccine against even mild illness since it impacts transmission. B1617 could move the goalposts for a safe reopening further out of reach.
Other early signs that VOCs can make reopening safely more difficult. The Maldives* have vaccinated 55% of the population mostly with AZ. Their reopening failed and new restrictions have been imposed in the capital amid rising cases and hospitalisations. https://raajje.mv/99544
Bahrain* has vaccinated 45% of the population with a mix of 4 vaccines and cases are still rising.
* for all 3 of these countries I don’t know which variant is circulating FYI, just that their high vaccination rates have not put the pandemic behind them yet
Back to B1617. In Bhutan, which famously vaccinated over 60% of the population in 2 weeks last month, the B1617 variant is still growing. Small absolute numbers at the moment, a situation similar to England’s, so where this will go is still to be seen.
I’ll just conclude with a sentiment that’s been floating around today which is that it’s possible to be very optimistic about the vaccination campaign and still concerned about how new VOCs could impact our ability to reopen safely. The war isn’t won, we need to stay vigilant.
Oh and I’m obviously going to plug #COVIDzero because in addition to equity and saving lives, suppressing the virus and ending the endless importation of VOCs is a great strategy to protect our vaccines and reopening plans.
