Version 8 of thread on vaccination+variants

Main change: updated (less optimistic) assumptions about effect of restrictions in QC, ON, AB to fit latest data. Guess at effect of new AB restrictions.

Again, only minor updates to vaccination assumptions https://twitter.com/CdnElectWatch/status/1385665017891098625
No major vaccine supply news in the past 2 weeks. Slightly more Moderna and less AZ now assumed.

As has been the case since Version 1 of this thread (two months ago), expecting 2/3 of total population with at least 1 dose by early June if uptake is sufficient.
Share of VoCs and combined effect of vaccinations and variants: again, almost no change from last version.
You can follow @CdnElectWatch.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: