1. Thread on President Ashraf Ghani's FA piece in which he lays out his thoughts on the meaning of this moment for Afghanistan and the barriers as well as pathways to peace. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2021-05-04/ashraf-ghani-afghanistan-moment-risk-and-opportunity

2. I think this assessment by Ghani that Pakistan was ultimately surprised at the US decision to withdraw is correct. Islamabad's outsized concerns that a stable Afghanistan would be aligned with India has led to the possibility that it will face a raging civil war next door.

3. TTP violence is rising inside Pakistan & an unstable Afghanistan will only make this trend worse. Bilateral US-Pakistan relations are also in bad shape. It is in Pakistan's own interests to use all tools to push the Taliban back to the negotiating table and violence reduction.

4. This paragraph is significant for 3 reasons. First, the Afghan government & ANDSF now have greater control over how they will manage negotiations and military operations. The short-term incentive for the US to withdraw will no longer be used to pressure the Afghan government.

5. Second, as Ghani points out, the withdrawal of foreign troops removes one of the Taliban's main stated justifications for waging war. The TB can choose to continue to portray the Afghan government as US proxies and remain a pariah movement, or negotiate.

6. Third, there's an opportunity for Congress, USAID & the dev community to rethink how to best deliver aid, set the precedent that aid should continue after a military withdrawal, and ensure that aid is responsive to Afghans rather than measured by counterproductive metrics.

7. President Ghani calls on the Taliban to answer questions which they have so far only offered vague answers to in their statements. Their actions offer an unacceptable answer. Managing an insurgency and leading a modern government are two very different things.

8. The Taliban are unlikely to accept Ghani's proposal outlined again here: "the structure of the republic must remain intact, a peace administration would maintain order and continuity while elections were planned and held." But the TB have offered no alternative other than war.

9. Ghani believes the TB are miscalculating this moment. TB negotiators have adopted the verbiage of diplomacy & are accustomed to its benefits. But their understanding of governance appears crystallized in time. Will they make the compromises that will keep Afghanistan afloat?

10. Perhaps most importantly, Ghani calls on the US and international community to continue to provide aid to the ANDSF and people of Afghanistan in the months going forward.