Okay so one of the games I like to play is "how is everyone right?"

Especially with charged up shit like economic policy.

Let's have a go shall we?
1/

So this unemployment thing - there are a bunch of classically econ- "-progressive" and "-conservative" takes out there, but for the sake of brevity let's reduce them to simple caricatures of their respective positions.

First the conservative one.
2/

Econ-conservatives kinda believe that, since the government is paying people to not work, they're not working.

They'd hold that the policies here are insane, and pandemic support is creating a ton of damage and ruining the available supply of labor.

"You're killing SMBs."
3/

Econ-progressives would hold that employers should simply pay more, and the fact that people are choosing not to work is a sign that the lack of wage growth and the continual beatdown on labor is finally coming to a head.

"Fuck you, pay us (labor) more."
4/

Now, see: I tend to think we can take a view where both parties are right.

Yes, people are not being paid enough. The lack of wage growth is a real problem.

And yes, trying to pay unskilled workers more will ruin many business models (SMBs more than most).
5/

Most non-tech businesses are simply not in a place to pay more - they're running a P&L (overtly or implicitly) that presumes cheap labor so they are 'addicted.'

Now, the econ-progressives would point to this and say "it's high time for a comeuppance to employers."

Likely so!
6/

BUT as the econ-conservatives would rightly point out, a right-sizing of pay basically just mangles (kills?) mom & pop businesses and advantages already-dominant tech megacorps who can simply absorb this cost on their P&L.

In fact, some would argue they already have.
7/

And that's problematic because a broad, diverse business ecosystem really is part of the magic of the American economy.

It's extremely problematic for us to weaken or lose that dynamic (note: also problematic for the rest of the world if we do...).
8/

And so what I'd note here is that like... both sides sort of want the same thing. We want:

- Better Gini coefficient
- Less systematic self-aggregation of capital and power
- Strong American economy that plays to our strengths

9/

And despite all the spicy, highly partisan, polemical takes out there (many of which are, indeed, well made and also hilarious) it's probably going to take us synthesizing the wisdom of both sides to win here.

It always has, & this is a tricky one.

But I like our chances.
/10