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I know the narrative remains: The reopening is coming! What if it is already here and not very impressive? As we do each week, lets look at the underlying data and what it is telling us. The pace of vaccinations have slowed as many who want one have already gotten one
Stadiums are offering free tickets with a vaccine and no appts required because the demand is waning. WFH has fallen considerably with flex schedules remaining as companies invest across the IT space. How sticky will flex schedules be?
Underlying refined product demand has flatlined even as the "reopening" accelerates, and yes- we will see another rise for summer driving season (which has been the case for the last 50 years)- but isn't this all expected?
China's labor day saw travel rise 3.2% above 2019 with spending 23% below. People continue to limit spending/travel distances to preserve capital- with the US being no different. How many are restricted from restaurants, stores, gyms, bars, airports, or general US travel?
We had our normal seasonal bump for Easter/Spring Break and we will have another for summer- but will it close the gap to historics? When we look at employment, wages, and underlying inflation- we still remain cautious. How much pent up demand is left?
