The @PHE_uk Variant Technical Briefing 10 now published

Confirms B.1.617.2 upgraded to a VOC due to transmissibility concerns (at least as infectious as B.1.1.7) and steep rises in case numbers

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/984274/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_10_England.pdf

This graph shows the rapid rise in B1.617.2 cases compared to other VOC/VUIs, indexed by first specimen date

With case numbers dropping in England to ~2k per day,

now almost 10% of sequences cases are variants (VOC/VUI)

The remaining 90% are B.1.1.7 (Kent variant)

For context, around half (50%) of all cases in England are being sequenced

*shouts into the void*
ENGLANDS SEQUENCING CAPABILITY IS WORLD CLASS

This may be the most important graph in the report.

Variant cases by travel status.

While travellers are a small (<10%) fraction of cases, they comprise the majority of all variant cases. This is rising due to borders testing policy & recent ‘India’ variant imports

Was asked earlier about travel with India variants.

There are still 100s of cases still awaiting follow up but can already see more community transmission among VOC B.1.617.2 than VUI B.1.617.1 (even though the VUI has been here longer)

Travel for the new VOC B.1.617.2

Purple line represents when India was red listed

Everyone’s eyes will be on which direction that epicurve takes in coming weeks.

*note sequencing has significant reporting delay of 7-21 days after sample date

Finally, more and more cases are SGT+ve, meaning Kent variant domination is coming to an end and we have a diversity of virus

Competition for top spot is open, hopefully VOC B.1.617.2 won’t take its place

Health Protection Teams are working round the clock to stop it