Read on Twitter
India's daily death toll from COVID is now undoubtedly the highest ANY country has ever recorded. Conservative estimate are deaths are 3𝙭 𝙧𝙚𝙥𝙤𝙧𝙩𝙚𝙙.
Ways to save lives:
-Nationwide lockdown
-Stay home
-Wear Masks
-If you a cold & fever: assume you have COVID & isolate.
Ways to save lives:
-Nationwide lockdown
-Stay home
-Wear Masks
-If you a cold & fever: assume you have COVID & isolate.
Modeling studies @iiscbangalore @SashikumaarG @deepakns shows that a 15-day lockdown can reduce reported deaths by >100,000.
If actual deaths are 3 times reported, this means India can potentially save >300,000 lives with a 15-day lockdown.
If actual deaths are 3 times reported, this means India can potentially save >300,000 lives with a 15-day lockdown.
Here is a framework on how a nationwide shelter in place order can be implemented with protections to prevent hardships for migrant workers and the poor. @Lakshmi_RKG https://scroll.in/article/993572/covid-19-crisis-india-urgently-needs-a-nationwide-shelter-at-home-directive-but-a-humane-one
While I think a nationwide order is the best approach given that every state is affected, in parallel people who have influence should urged individual states should act. Even 2 weeks stay at home order will have a big impact. @PSampathkumarMD @GunasekaranMu
Here is the link for the @iiscbangalore modeling. It is interactive and you can see how each state is doing relative to national predictions. https://cmg.cds.iisc.ac.in/covid/ @SashikumaarG @deepakns
We can get an estimate of how much deaths are undercounted in this crisis based on how many bodies are cremated in a day in a given region versus deaths reported that day in the same place. Studies show 10x discrepancy. @NPR @lfrayer @Neoavatara https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/04/30/992451165/india-is-counting-thousands-of-daily-covid-deaths-how-many-is-it-missing
This discrepancy between reported deaths and true deaths is at its worst now because complete breakdown in testing, and near complete lack of hospital beds.
So what would have been 2x last year is probably several fold higher now.
So what would have been 2x last year is probably several fold higher now.
The modeling by @iiscbangalore is a very sophisticated multi dimensional PDE model. It accurately predicted the benefits of lockdown last year. The first lockdown last year in India worked. @SashikumaarG @deepakns
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-86084-7
https://cmg.cds.iisc.ac.in/covid/ https://twitter.com/vincentrk/status/1388133340566413315
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-86084-7
https://cmg.cds.iisc.ac.in/covid/ https://twitter.com/vincentrk/status/1388133340566413315
Indian government COVID task force members feel the same. https://indianexpress.com/article/india/coronavirus-transmission-covid-19-task-force-national-lockdown-7298468/
A lockdown will relieve stress on hospitals. It will enable people who are seriously ill get hospital/ICU beds. It will help them reach from home to hospital much quicker. It will save thousands of lives that are lost that could be easily saved with simple medical care & oxygen.
It will also allow vaccinations to proceed. Right now everything is broken.
I'm glad many states are acting or planning to act within a few days.
