Today's job report is likely to be very strong. A key indicator I will be looking at is not the unemployment rate but how many people are unemployed and how many are out of the labor force. 1/

Many people who were employed pre-pandemic are not counted as unemployed (because they are not searching), which contributes to the paradoxically tight labor market we have right now. (See https://www.nber.org/papers/w28083  ) 2/

In March we saw similar declines in the number unemployed and out of the labor force (260k each), suggesting that the recovery is pulling folks back into the labor market. But we still have a long way to go. 3/

Note that if many folks start searching again, the unemployment rate could *rise*, but for a very good reason. This is why it's more important to look at the employment numbers and the participation rate. 4/4