1/ Ortega putting on a master class on how to steal an election. Hack autocrats like Trump think you can steal the vote on Election Day or in the recount, but seasoned dictators like Ortega know you have to put in the early work to steal the election before the vote happens

2/ After stacking the supreme electoral council with his cronies, Ortega is now shortening the runway — giving the opposition 6 days to pick their candidate and determine which party ticket they’ll run on, without any guarantee the regime won’t change rules of game before Nov

3/ This blows up any honest effort by the opposition to establish an open and transparent primary process, or create the conditions for a genuine and democratic unity around a single candidate. And it maximizes suspicions, divisionism, tribalism, and resentment among opposition

4/ This is classic Ortega, divide and conquer while playing judge, jury, and executioner (to mix cliches). Ortega sets the rules of the game, controls the shot clock, has his home-field tilted in his favor, and owns the referees

5/ The majority opposition’s challenge is to muscle through all of the noise and headwind to define a single candidate and a single party casilla within the next week, without splintering into all its various factions and egos.

Advantage Ortega

6/ The opposition does have one thing going for it: Nicaragua is the land of magical realism, where cork sinks and lead floats.

Nica has a track record of achieving the impossible. Ortega knows it. So does Murillo. It’s why she wears feather earrings and 100 rings as talisman