THREAD: There's a battle taking place right now. Who's going to explain what happened? Which two or three explanations are going to win? It's utter bullshit. Don't fall for it. It's part of the problem we have after EVERY election. This is why it's a problem....

Because at some point narratives takes hold. "We lost because of this". "We won because of this." So the parties either try to respond to those explanations or carry on what they were doing because it proved successful. They're both wrong, and it can have horrendous consequences

E.g. In the last two decades politicians seemed to believe that people wanted them to be "tough" on immigration. So, we got Labour and the Conservatives in an arms race to out-tough each other, because they've been told that's why people were voting the way they were. Wrong.

First of all, you'd have to explain to me the precise voter decision pathway and prove beyond doubt that immigration, and immigration alone, determined that person's vote. Good luck with that. Second, and probably worse, you've taken ALL THE WRONG CUES in the first place. People

did want some controls on immigration, but they also hold balanced views. Sunder Katwala, Rob Ford, Maria Sobolewska and many others described this very clearly. So, why are we getting Go Home vans patrolling neighbourhoods? Because the narrative was "must be tough". Why are we

getting 10,000 new border guards from Labour? Because they must be "tough". Both wrong and dangerous. That's just ONE example. It happens after every election. We spend days, weeks arguing about two or three explanations because we desparately want their to be just two

or three. Wrong. Voters are complex and contradictory. They don't hold uniform views, nor do those views necessarily determine who they vote for. Turns out a powerful reason people vote the way they do is prior voting behaviour. Maybe that has weakened somewhat, but if it

has then spend some time (invest some money!) in trying to find out. Don't guess. That's what's happening right now on your timeline. Everyone is guessing. It's dangerous because at some point those guesses crystallise into narratives, and political parties are forced to respond

to them. Don't be surprised when those responses go badly wrong, and we all end up worse off. I'm speaking just as much about the Conservatives as I am of Labour here. They'll also take ALL the wrong cues from Hartlepool or the local elections. If all we are doing is responding

to the wrong cues with the wrong solutions, then don't be surprised when ten years later you've forgotten who you are and what you stand for (all parties!). It's probably worth taking our time a little before determining what those cues are. Or at least taking care in creating a

narrative because that narrative becomes a tiger you have to ride. Eventually, as we know, you end up inside the tiger. End.