A lot of gloom on my lefty-peeps timeline this morning, for obvious (UK political) reasons. But I’m more optimistic, at least medium term. I don’t see we’re facing another generation of Tory rule. Hope I'm not wrong. 1/

I realise of course that Starmer is not a exciting or galvanising leader, but he is, very particularly ‘a safe pair of hands’, which is a very useful thing to be, on the principle that oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them. 2/

A couple of things worth bearing in mind: this government is the most astonishingly inept and corrupt administration of my lifetime (maybe the Tory govt late-80s/early 90s was worse. I’m not sure). Johnson has political enemies, but no real political friends ... 3/

... even his supporters only back him because they think his posh-o burbling extraversion, which, staggeringly, is what counts as ‘charisma’ in this arena, is needful to attract voters. 4/

Brexit purity purging has stripped the Tories of politicians of real talent, and the people standing behind Boris are either repellent (like Gove) or even less charismatic than Starmer. 5/

“If the govt is so bad, why do they enjoy such widespread support?” I hear you ask. For a number of reasons I think, but primarily because the nation has been in not one but *two* Agambenian states of exception: two actual national emergencies—Brexit and the Pandemic— 6/

that have hugely distorted the usual political ecosystem. But these states won’t last for ever. Brexit is technically behind us now, and as people start to notice the absence of benefits and the various long-tail downsides most folk (true-believer Brexit cultists aside) ... 7/

... will become increasingly embarrassed by or disaffected about it. So much disruption, expense and pain … and for what? 8/

Covid will probably never go away, but if the vaccine rollout continues on the path it’s on it will become much less disruptive, more social background noise on a seasonal sine-wave. Once we are past these two things the Tories will have nowhere to hide. 9/

They have already been in power for eleven years: if a week is a long time in politics, eleven years is *eons*. The longer they go on, the more people will grow sick and tired of them, for this is one of the iron laws of democratic politics— ... 10/

... eventually the electorate just get *bored* with the ruling party. One lesson of the Major years is that, when it is in power for very prolonged periods, any political party becomes increasingly sleazy, exhausted and unappealing. 11/

As incompetence and corruption figure more and more in the regular voter’s perception of the govt, that ‘safe pair of hands’ will become more and more appealing. My prediction is that we’ll see a sea-change by the time the next election rolls around. 12/