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Here's the thing: U.S. population is expected to grow from ~ 330M today to ~ 400M by 2050.
There are currently ~ 280M cars in U.S., or about 1 car per every 1.17 people.
So, if we take "EVs only" approach on climate & don't densify cities and add transit, guess what happens?
There are currently ~ 280M cars in U.S., or about 1 car per every 1.17 people.
So, if we take "EVs only" approach on climate & don't densify cities and add transit, guess what happens?
If ratio of cars/humans stays same -- 1:1.17 -- then the United States of 2050 will have 340 million cars.
This leaves us a couple options: We can pave another few million miles to accommodate those cars; or, we can plop them onto existing roads.
See the problem here ...
This leaves us a couple options: We can pave another few million miles to accommodate those cars; or, we can plop them onto existing roads.
See the problem here ...
60 million additional cars have to go *somewhere.* Most likely, they'll go on the traffic-clustered roads we already have.
Won't that be great? Isn't that just an *amazing* vision of the world that electric vehicle advocates have planned for us?
Won't that be great? Isn't that just an *amazing* vision of the world that electric vehicle advocates have planned for us?
Imagine the drive over Sepulveda pass during rush hour. Now add a few million more cars in L.A. county.
What about the commute from SF to San Jose? It's great, right? Add a million cars to it.
And oh shit, Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Seattle, DC -- what else can I even say.
What about the commute from SF to San Jose? It's great, right? Add a million cars to it.
And oh shit, Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Seattle, DC -- what else can I even say.
The vision of a clean swap to electric vehicles just hasn't given any thought to consequences of a failure on urban housing and densification. And this is where things go sideways:
Guess what happens under a scenario where we SUCCEED in making cities denser and more affordable?
Guess what happens under a scenario where we SUCCEED in making cities denser and more affordable?
Instead of 280 million cars growing to 340 million ...
IT GOES DOWN. People in walkable, transit-oriented neighborhoods DRIVE LESS & OWN FEWER CARS.
We could have FEWER cars in U.S. of 2050 than we do in 2021.
In fact, if we don't pick this pathway, we'll fail on climate.
IT GOES DOWN. People in walkable, transit-oriented neighborhoods DRIVE LESS & OWN FEWER CARS.
We could have FEWER cars in U.S. of 2050 than we do in 2021.
In fact, if we don't pick this pathway, we'll fail on climate.
I'm pretty clear we have to electrify every single car on the road, ASAP. I'm also super clear that a USA that grows to 340 million cars -- even if they're all-electric -- for 400 million people will be worst place to live on the planet. It will suck monumentally.
Let's not.
Let's not.
Realized I dropped most important math from this thread.
Annual sales of new cars/trucks in US is 17 million. So, if we sold 100% EVs starting today, we could have 340 million EVs by ~ 2040.
We're selling ~ 5% EVs today, and won't even hit 50% until well into the 2030s.
Annual sales of new cars/trucks in US is 17 million. So, if we sold 100% EVs starting today, we could have 340 million EVs by ~ 2040.
We're selling ~ 5% EVs today, and won't even hit 50% until well into the 2030s.
