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Here& #39;s the thing: U.S. population is expected to grow from ~ 330M today to ~ 400M by 2050.
There are currently ~ 280M cars in U.S., or about 1 car per every 1.17 people.
So, if we take "EVs only" approach on climate & don& #39;t densify cities and add transit, guess what happens?
There are currently ~ 280M cars in U.S., or about 1 car per every 1.17 people.
So, if we take "EVs only" approach on climate & don& #39;t densify cities and add transit, guess what happens?
If ratio of cars/humans stays same -- 1:1.17 -- then the United States of 2050 will have 340 million cars.
This leaves us a couple options: We can pave another few million miles to accommodate those cars; or, we can plop them onto existing roads.
See the problem here ...
This leaves us a couple options: We can pave another few million miles to accommodate those cars; or, we can plop them onto existing roads.
See the problem here ...
60 million additional cars have to go *somewhere.* Most likely, they& #39;ll go on the traffic-clustered roads we already have.
Won& #39;t that be great? Isn& #39;t that just an *amazing* vision of the world that electric vehicle advocates have planned for us?
Won& #39;t that be great? Isn& #39;t that just an *amazing* vision of the world that electric vehicle advocates have planned for us?
Imagine the drive over Sepulveda pass during rush hour. Now add a few million more cars in L.A. county.
What about the commute from SF to San Jose? It& #39;s great, right? Add a million cars to it.
And oh shit, Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Seattle, DC -- what else can I even say.
What about the commute from SF to San Jose? It& #39;s great, right? Add a million cars to it.
And oh shit, Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Seattle, DC -- what else can I even say.
The vision of a clean swap to electric vehicles just hasn& #39;t given any thought to consequences of a failure on urban housing and densification. And this is where things go sideways:
Guess what happens under a scenario where we SUCCEED in making cities denser and more affordable?
Guess what happens under a scenario where we SUCCEED in making cities denser and more affordable?
Instead of 280 million cars growing to 340 million ...
IT GOES DOWN. People in walkable, transit-oriented neighborhoods DRIVE LESS & OWN FEWER CARS.
We could have FEWER cars in U.S. of 2050 than we do in 2021.
In fact, if we don& #39;t pick this pathway, we& #39;ll fail on climate.
IT GOES DOWN. People in walkable, transit-oriented neighborhoods DRIVE LESS & OWN FEWER CARS.
We could have FEWER cars in U.S. of 2050 than we do in 2021.
In fact, if we don& #39;t pick this pathway, we& #39;ll fail on climate.
