Proposed text of the waiver, submitted to the TRIPS Council in October 2020, is here. 2/x

https://docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/SS/directdoc.aspx?filename=q:/IP/C/W669.pdf&Open=True">https://docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pa...
As an example of opposition to the proposal, here’s a response from Norway back in October 2020. It heavily emphasizes the existing flexibilities in the TRIPS Agreement. 3/x https://www.norway.no/en/missions/wto-un/nig/statements/other-issues/council-for-trips/trips1610/">https://www.norway.no/en/missio...
This thread by @VidigalGeraldo also underscores the practical challenges of compulsory licensing. 6/x https://twitter.com/vidigalgeraldo/status/1390048092729323522">https://twitter.com/vidigalge...
Aside from compulsory licensing, TRIPS Art. 73 creates an exception for security measures taken in times of “emergency in international relations." This is probably not the flexibility that waiver opponents have in mind, but it’s there. 7/x

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/ai17_e/trips_art73_jur.pdf">https://www.wto.org/english/r...
Professor Frederick Abbott has argued (correctly, in my view) that the Covid-19 pandemic meets the requirements of Article 73, and that states could invoke the exception in order to ensure access to vaccines and other technology. 8/x

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3682260">https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/pape...
What I’m coming to understand is that the waiver is an option that’s between the problematic (compulsory licenses) and the dramatic (security). It’s enabled by Article IX of the WTO Agreement. 9/x

https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/ai17_e/wto_agree_art9_oth.pdf">https://www.wto.org/english/r...
Opponents argue that a waiver will do little good b/c capacity, not IP, is the obstacle. There is speculation that a waiver may “backfire.” A piece that nonetheless acknowledges the need to exert activist pressure on Big Pharma is here, by @rsilv_dc. 11/x https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/03/15/vaccine-coronavirus-patents-waive-global-equity/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2...
An alternative argument posits that TRIPS protection is the sine qua non of innovation. There’s also an almost reactionary concern for the legitimacy of the @WTO. See eg this @CatoTrade piece by Jim Bacchus, which gives the game away in the subhed. 12/x #conclusion">https://www.cato.org/free-trade-bulletin/unnecessary-proposal-wto-waiver-intellectual-property-rights-covid-19-vaccines #conclusion">https://www.cato.org/free-trad...
. @AmbassadorTai @USTradeRep has shifted the terrain, announcing “support for waiving intellectual property protections for COVID-19 vaccines.” This is not full support for the India/South Africa proposal or for any precise text. But it’s a big step. 13/x

https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2021/may/statement-ambassador-katherine-tai-covid-19-trips-waiver">https://ustr.gov/about-us/...
It’s still not entirely clear what the US envisions from all of this. As far as what could come next, here’s a useful thread by @DmitryOpines. 15/x https://twitter.com/dmitryopines/status/1390035964882571265">https://twitter.com/dmitryopi...
Here’s @alanbeattie in @FinancialTimes, noting that the immediate effect of US support for some kind of waiver is that it provides political cover to states seeking to exercise TRIPS flexibilities to their maximum extent. 17/x https://www.ft.com/content/0930fe14-5187-45dc-b573-4f4098211bf4">https://www.ft.com/content/0...
As we can see, the @USTradeRep announcement from yesterday is just part of an iterative political process, and it’s not clear yet where we’ll end up. It’s also a relatively moderate solution all things considered, as @MMKavanagh points out. 19/x https://twitter.com/mmkavanagh/status/1390280527815585795">https://twitter.com/mmkavanag...
None of this has stopped some pretty extreme reactions. @SoumayaKeynes in @TheEconomist described the US as “tear[ing] up the rulebook.” 20/x

(I don’t pay for the Economist & couldn’t read past the first 2 paragraphs. If anyone can offer me an IP waiver, I’ll take it.) https://twitter.com/soumayakeynes/status/1390358319794171906">https://twitter.com/soumayake...
Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel, meanwhile, told us all to go back to sleep, saying there would be no impact because of the general lack of capacity and know-how to make mRNA vaccines. That likely has something to do with the company’s share prices. 21/x https://www.ft.com/content/607bf143-3360-4543-8cb4-b1a1c42fc41f">https://www.ft.com/content/6...
All of this noise only underscores the fact that we still don’t have a clear vision where all this is headed. What @wto obligations, if any, will be waived or modified, and how? And how will that be paired with technology transfer for the benefit of developing countries? 23/x
As @dyebo points out, it’s incredibly frustrating that we have to ask these questions this late in the game. Still, here we are, predictably perhaps. And the question now is how we move forward. /END https://twitter.com/dyebo/status/1390401758816526339">https://twitter.com/dyebo/sta...
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