So looks like the govt has finally designated B.1.617.2 (so-called 'Indian variant' a VOC- the PHE appears to have designated that the risk to the public is 'high', but the information appears to have not been released due to elections! Some really concerning aspects here- Thread

This variant has been growing rapidly in no. in the UK- while overall cases & cases of B.1.1.7 ('Kent' variant) have been dropping. This is the same pattern we saw with B.1.1.7 in Nov, when it was growing with an R=1.5, while R for other variants was <1 https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1389650695230472198?s=20

VUI/VOC sequences (most accounted for by B.1.617.2 at this point) now form 9% of all sequences, and are rapidly rising. Proportion appears to be even higher in London and the South East, where proportion was 11% over a week ago, so probably higher now. https://twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1389349904770813957?s=20

The pattern in India has been very similar, with several states showing B.1.617.2 becoming dominant against B.1.1.7 (although sparse sequencing). This means that B.1.617.2 is likely fitter than B.1.1.7 in some way - either increased transmissibility or escape or both.

The rate of growth of B.1.617.2 against B.1.1.7 seems to be similar to the rate at which B.1.1.7 replaced the previous variant. This means *relative fitness* of B.1.617.2 vs B.1.1.7 may be similar to the relative fitness of B.1.1.7 vs previous variants. https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/status/1388147283359932421?s=20

This is concerning- because we have seen how quickly a new more transmissible variant can change the shape of the pandemic & how quickly these can spread. Currently B.1.617.2 appears to be doubling every wk, so it may become dominant in some parts of the UK in 2-4 weeks.

The PHE appears to have now designated this as a VOC, despite having delayed release of data due to elections(!) in the midst of what looks like a public health emergency. There's clearly been spread in many community settings- 48 clusters & almost 800 cases identified.

Cases have been identified in *secondary schools* (where govt is considering stripping masks on 17th May), care homes, and religious gatherings. Yet, the govt knowing all this hasn't communicated this to the public & presumable to local authorities(?) who could've taken action.

As @chrischirp puts it "telling the public about a public health emergency should not need to wait for a specific release day or local elections – this should have been communicated earlier, not least to protect communities where the clusters are.”

Bizarrely the govt website today said the delays were due to problems with data processing. According to the guardian, it appears to have been a deliberate decision to postpone until after the election- why the lack of transparency? https://twitter.com/adamhamdy/status/1390356374631104516?s=20

There have been cases in care homes where 15 residents who had received both doses of Astra (but 2nd dose in previous week) got infected & 4 hospitalised but with non-severe disease. We definitely need more information about vaccination status among those infected overall.

It seems completely bizarre to me that while PHE has designated this a 'high risk' threat to public health, they have continued with large 'trials', considering lifting mitigations in schools (at the same time spread is occurring), and done nothing to improve border policy.

What's even worse is that many of us have been warning about these variants for a while - saying that we need to keep transmission down, and have strict border measures during vaccine roll-out - but there's been no response.

Many scientists have repeatedly warned variants were increasing in frequency & could really change the shape of the pandemic - suggesting we learn from what's happening in other countries- but the risk of this has been consistently minimised in the media, and even by scientists.

It seems that a side effect of the exceptionalism prevalent in the UK is that despite scientific expertise, and scientists raising alarm and advising caution, we only act, when it's very late - again and again. All of this was entirely predictable & predicted.

We didn't prevent these variants coming in, we didn't prevent them growing despite our amazing surveillance systems. What is the point of having these amazing resources that collect data, if we never respond to data, and don't even share it with local authorities who need to know

So while we're in the midst of a public health emergency, where every few months we're seeing one fit variant of virus being replaced by another fitter variant of virus (making pandemic control even harder), rather than focusing on containing transmission & controlling borders -

-we are doing 'trials' with thousands gathering while we have community transmission of a concerning variant happening
-we are looking to strip masks from secondaries, where outbreaks of B.1.617.2 are ongoing
-we are looking to ease rather than strengthen border restrictions

- and scientists are talking about how SARS-CoV-2 will mutate into a benign version of the flu or an endemic coronavirus, when all evidence so far points to adaptation in the opposite direction
-spending 30 million on new vaccines for variants but doing nothing to limit spread

Every time we let a new fitter variant become dominant, we take a huge risk. A more transmissible variant can make pandemic control much harder. A variant that can escape immune responses & vaccines can threaten our primary pandemic strategy. Why take the risk?

Every variant has the potential to change the shape of the pandemic. This hasn't happened once- it's happened many times with SARS-CoV-2.
- the original variant was replaced by D614G early last yr
-then B117 in UK, B1351 in SA, and P1 in Manaus
- and now B.1.617.2

Why would anyone think this would change, unless we take action to ensure we contain transmission to prevent mutation & adaptation, and also prevent imports at are borders? We have agency - this isn't inevitable. But it is inevitable if we don't exercise it.

Sorry, forgot to link to the @guardian article: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/new-concerns-indian-covid-variant-clusters-found-across-england-ongoing-risk-high