Read on Twitter
15 cases of B1617.2 (
variant) in care home in London a week after 2nd dose of Oxford/AZ- likely too soon for full effectiveness
0 deaths.
Chance of this outcome without vaccine was ~ 1 in 800
(0.12%)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/new-concerns-indian-covid-variant-clusters-found-across-england-ongoing-risk-high
variant) in care home in London a week after 2nd dose of Oxford/AZ- likely too soon for full effectiveness0 deaths.
Chance of this outcome without vaccine was ~ 1 in 800
(0.12%)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/new-concerns-indian-covid-variant-clusters-found-across-england-ongoing-risk-high
Even though 4 hospitalised they were all non-severe.
Chance of 4 OR FEWER hospitalisations without vax AND including severe cases = ~1 in 7 (14%)
Will be even lower for non-severe but I have no data reference for that!
Chance of 4 OR FEWER hospitalisations without vax AND including severe cases = ~1 in 7 (14%)
Will be even lower for non-severe but I have no data reference for that!
Public Health England estimate 1 dose Oxford/AZ vax 85% effective at preventing deaths (in 70yo+ pop against B117 at the time)
In this scenario
Chance of 0 deaths is ~ 1 in 2.3 (43%)
Think vax effectiveness (severe/death) against B1617 probably falls in similar ball park.
In this scenario
Chance of 0 deaths is ~ 1 in 2.3 (43%)
Think vax effectiveness (severe/death) against B1617 probably falls in similar ball park.
