Thread by @DevanSinha, 15 cases of B1617.2 ( variant) in care home in London a [...]

Devan Sinha

DevanSinha

15 cases of B1617.2 (

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flagge von Indien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Indien"> variant) in care home in London a week after 2nd dose of Oxford/AZ- likely too soon for full effectiveness

0 deaths.

Chance of this outcome without vaccine was ~ 1 in 800
(0.12%)

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/new-concerns-indian-covid-variant-clusters-found-across-england-ongoing-risk-high">https://www.theguardian.com/world/202...

15 cases of B1617.2 (https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable=

variant) in care home in London a week after 2nd dose of Oxford/AZ- likely too soon for full effectiveness0 deaths.Chance of this outcome without vaccine was ~ 1 in 800(0.12%) https://www.theguardian.com/world/202..." title="15 cases of B1617.2 (https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flagge von Indien" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Indien"> variant) in care home in London a week after 2nd dose of Oxford/AZ- likely too soon for full effectiveness0 deaths.Chance of this outcome without vaccine was ~ 1 in 800(0.12%) https://www.theguardian.com/world/202..." class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>

Even though 4 hospitalised they were all non-severe.

Chance of 4 OR FEWER hospitalisations without vax AND including severe cases = ~1 in 7 (14%)

Will be even lower for non-severe but I have no data reference for that!

Public Health England estimate 1 dose Oxford/AZ vax 85% effective at preventing deaths (in 70yo+ pop against B117 at the time)

In this scenario

Chance of 0 deaths is ~ 1 in 2.3 (43%)

Think vax effectiveness (severe/death) against B1617 probably falls in similar ball park.

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