Read on Twitter
Embedded in the new @theintercept reporting by @kenklippenstein & @ryangrim is a narrative of the 2019 crisis that hides as much as it reveals.
The left needs to do better than this in keeping track of the facts.
The left needs to do better than this in keeping track of the facts.
Outside of Bolivia, this allegedly Very Important Sentence from the OAS has been taken as some kind of turning point in 2019. It never was.
The 23-hour pause in counting and the cutting off of electricity to the counting server are bizarrely absent.
The 23-hour pause in counting and the cutting off of electricity to the counting server are bizarrely absent.
There were multiple reasons for panic over this sudden pause. https://twitter.com/CarwilBJ/status/1195451238420074496
The opposition did indeed rapidly charge fraud, beginning during this frankly extreme moment.
And many in the opposition also used fraud to describe the overruling of the 2016 referendum (where a majority voted to disallow Morales from running for a 2nd term).
And many in the opposition also used fraud to describe the overruling of the 2016 referendum (where a majority voted to disallow Morales from running for a 2nd term).
In order to not talk about this, the Intercept article gets the count wrong. The rapid count paused at a 7.12% lead for Morales for 23 hours, but eventually climbed to 10.14%.
The final, official count gave him a 10.6% lead.
The final, official count gave him a 10.6% lead.
While late-breaking votes are often rural in Bolivian elections, around two-thirds of the vote after the cut was urban. https://www.paginasiete.bo/nacional/2019/11/10/casi-tercios-de-votos-que-faltaban-por-contar-tras-el-corte-del-trep-eran-urbanos-236944.html
The OAS statement also wasn't "incendiary" or the cause of people taking to the streets because, prior to the vote, most Bolivians already saw Morales' re-postulation as illegal and 68% feared fraud.*
See the EU observer report… https://twitter.com/CarwilBJ/status/1236340790319894528
See the EU observer report… https://twitter.com/CarwilBJ/status/1236340790319894528
* There are reasons to suspect an upward bias in these numbers because many polls overrepresent the urban axis of the country.
None of this negates the fact that Morales won a plurality of the vote, as acknowledged by all including the final report of the OAS audit. The whole debate was over whether he won more than 10%.
But there has been way too much international left attention to the OAS's Very Important Sentence, and way too little on why…
1—Morales ran again despite losing the 2016 referendum
2—Many voters defected from him between 2014 & '19
3—Many grassroots movements didn't defend him
1—Morales ran again despite losing the 2016 referendum
2—Many voters defected from him between 2014 & '19
3—Many grassroots movements didn't defend him
And way, way too little from the grassroots left inside Bolivia. May I suggest…
https://woborders.blog/2019/11/15/beyond-dichotomies/ https://towardfreedom.org/story/bolivia-evos-fall-the-fascist-right-and-the-power-of-memory/
https://woborders.blog/2019/11/15/beyond-dichotomies/ https://towardfreedom.org/story/bolivia-evos-fall-the-fascist-right-and-the-power-of-memory/
