One of the most dangerous lies in the world today is the idea that unreliable solar energy, if combined with batteries, can power the world. And the most dangerous advocate of this lie is the brilliant Elon Musk--because he is so admired for his brilliance.

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For years, Elon Musk has been claiming that solar panels plus batteries can power the world. Because Musk is a brilliant engineer, this claim seems credible. But as I will show by examining a recent version of this claim (pictured), it is deeply dishonest.
Musk says that "to power the whole Earth" we need just solar panels and "some batteries."

What is "some batteries"?

To store a mere three days worth of energy, to be prepared for weeks (let alone seasons) with lower-than-usual sunlight, takes 1330 terawatt-hours in batteries.
What does 1330 terawatt-hours in batteries cost? At current Megapack prices quoted by Elon Musk himself--$300 per kilowatt-hour--that's about *400 trillion dollars*.

To put this in perspective, global GDP is $87 trillion.

So, Musk's "some batteries" cost >4.5X global GDP.
More dishonesty by Musk: claiming that solar provides "roughly 200MW/km^2." But this is how much solar would produce during the sunniest part of a cloudless day if no space were needed among the panels. In the real world, solar production averages 6MW/km^2--1/34th Musk's figure.
Still more dishonesty by Musk: claiming solar and batteries can "power the whole Earth," then talking about how many Megapacks would be needed to "overnight"--when he knows full well that his hypothetical scheme would require days of storage, not "overnight."
For more of the fallacies, lies, and distortions in Elon Musk's claim see the winners of the contest I held last week. https://twitter.com/AlexEpstein/status/1388194229873102849
Musk's energy dishonesty is so dangerous because Musk is deservedly admired for many reasons.

I admire his "first principles" approach to business+engineering problems as well as many of his products. And I'm all for cost-effective EVs, autonomous driving, and boring tunnels.
You can follow @AlexEpstein.
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