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In #Israel, @yairlapid and @naftalibennett are trying now to form a cabinet, with Bennett the first PM in a rotation between the two. One problem (among others) - Bennett's party commands only 6% of the parliament. Critics say he will lose even that next election. Will he? 
I looked at http://Parlgov.org data of 474 PM-parties in 29 countries over 70 years (1945-2015) and how they faired in the next elections. Not good (but unsurprisingly), they lose votes. Governing has its costs. But most PM parties are much larger than Bennett's 2/n
To figure out how change in vote share depends on vote share, I ran a regression with the former as DV, and the latter as well as its square value to allow for non-linearity. Turns out most parties lose votes, but not the really small ones - below 10%. Lucky for Bennett! 3/n
But wait! what about ideology? Bennett's party is also far from the centre, isn't that precarious? Well, yes it is. If we add interaction with extremity, we see it is the central small PM-parties that gain votes, while small extreme parties lose votes. 4/n
So should Bennett risk it and be PM? I say yes. First, if you follow Israeli politics you know this is better than the alternative (if you don't, trust me). Also, you don't get many chances to become PM. And political narratives - like history - are written by the winner. 5/5
