The smoke has cleared after the draft so lets take a spin through the Rashod Bateman profile and what landing in Baltimore means for his fantasy outlook.

Let's Dive In.

Rashod Bateman just went at pick 1.27 of the first round to the Baltimore Ravens.

Bateman's breakout age from @rotounderworld is 18.8.

First round picks with age 18 breakout ages have VERY high hit rates.

According to this super slick chart from the great @pahowdy we can see that if we know absolutely NOTHING other than breakout age and draft round we have a historical hit rate of 66.7%.

But wait... there's more.

A couple years ago @AmItheRealBlair put out an article illustrating the difference between early declares and seniors in terms of fantasy success that basically changed the world as we knew it.

Check out the article below:

https://www.rotoviz.com/2019/01/one-weird-trick-for-finding-top-wr-prospects-early-declaration-and-draft-age-the-wrong-read-no-53/

Oh yeah, Shoddy B don't need no schooling... The dude dropped out the first chance he got when the NFL came calling.

Nickname courtesy of the smoothest operator out here on these twitter waters.. @RayGQue

Easily the most important part of my process is consistent excellence. I am looking for players that consistently out-perform their peers once we adjust for the context of age and their place within their offense.

I use age adjust market share of receiving yards.

This handy graphing tool makes it REALLY easy to visualize how players performed in college and can be found at @DLFootball

You can plot pretty much any player you want using it.

Rashod Bateman CRUSHES in this metric.

Another metric I use is age adjust yards per team pass attempt.

This adds an element of efficiency to the equation and Rashod Bateman also smashes the world in this metric 100% of the time... every time.

This doesnt play a factor in my grades but it adds some context to Bateman's production

At age 18 Bateman played Robin to Tyler Johnson's Batman.

Johnson is a year older and played fairly well in a limited role for the Bucs so that isnt so bad.

At age 19 and in Bateman's sophomore year he took the step forward we were hoping for as he went toe-to-toe with Johnson.

And then last year Bateman caught Covid which caused him to lose a bunch of weight. He also only played 5 of the team's 7 games and still led them in receiving.

Exactly what you want to see.

*stats courtesy of @pfref

At this point we can safely declare Rashod Bateman Bulletproof.

Athleticism at the WR position doesnt matter in this particular instance but if all else is equal I'd prefer the athlete over the non-athlete.

RAS is relative athletic score and it combines size and athleticism into a singular number.

This was created by @MathBomb

And then we get to size... This is the biggest blow on the Bateman profile.

We were led to believe that we were getting all of this wrapped up in a 6'2 210 pound frame. A pure Alpha-male set to bully WR's at will.

Instead Bateman measured in at 6'0 and 190 pounds at his pro day....

ruh oh.

The comp list we thought we were getting had players like DeAndre Hopkins and Davante Adams on it.

Now, everything changes.

At 6'0 190 I only have one other Bulletproof comp for him and it's the good but uninspiring Tyler Boyd.

If I knock the threshold down to coinflips we get a few more players but a lot more Robin's than Batman's.

As I mentioned earlier though, Bateman actually lost a lot of weight when he caught Covid and has claimed his normal playing weight is around 195 pounds.

When I bump his weight to that we get only Jeremy Maclin as a true comp for him.

So in my opinion we should expect something between a Tyler Boyd or Jeremy Maclin type career which is really good.

The problem is I was expecting MOAR earlier on in the process.

Here is a look a the Alpha/Beta breakdown and what it means for fantasy production historically.

Bateman is RIGHT on the fringe. I use the thresholds 6'0, 195 pounds, and 26.0+ BMI. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1369119686164504577?s=20

So that extra 5 pounds he says he lost from Covid is kind of a big deal if you buy into arbitrary thresholds.

Personally I think Bateman is fine, and would have much prefered him at 6'2 and 210 like were promised... But that was make believe so...

At one point I was quite certain it was "fine" if you missed out on Ja'Marr Chase because you could Just get Rashod Bateman later.

I have shifted gears and am now aggressively trying to move up to chase Chase.

Anyway, if you are interested in this type of prospect breakdown check out my rookie guide.

Its condensed version of all of this. Volume 2 is coming soon and is a free upgrade. It will update for landing spots and draft capital! https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1387472522275266560?s=20

And I ran out of time on the thread so if you want the breakdown on the landing spot, I talked about it on the podcast today! https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1390267160824487942?s=20

As always, you can find me on patreon if you want the full dynasty or devy rankings and the best damn fantasy football discord chat on the planet. http://patreon.com/bulletproofFF