Let’s be clear, Starmer’s Labour should do very well today.

1. They’re going up against a Tory government that messed up completely and repeatedly leading to 10s of thousands of unnecessary deaths. Per capita Trump had fewer deaths and lost.

1a. The ~Vaccine bounce~, if such a bounce exists, is because the Tories got lucky (and benefited from the existence of the NHS) after a year of unrelenting failure. Had Starmer attacked them instead of just being quiet a Tory bounce would merely be reducing Labour’s lead.

2. The media that was viciously hostile to Corbyn has been extremely kind to Starmer, even going so far as to ignore him hitting a cyclist and then leaving the scene before the police arrived. Regardless of why much better coverage should lead to much better results.

2a. This is leaving aside the fact last week the *Daily Mail* was attacking Johnson and much of the media spent the fortnight before these elections criticising the Tories, something unthinkable under Corbyn and again something that should lead to good results for Starmer.

3. Starmer also has the near universal support of the PLP, he’s not having to deal with hostile MPs touring the studios to attack him, nor the shadow cabinet briefing to the press day in day out. This makes it much easier for him to make his case to voters.

3a. By this point into his tenure as leader Corbyn had already faced a coup while Starmer has those who lead that coup declaring their loyalty to him regardless of results. This support from the Wreckers should enable him to do significantly better than Corbyn did.

4. Conversely while the SCG’s lack of opposition to Starmer has been disappointing for the left it allows Labour to show a united front. The SCG stopped writing even strongly worded letters last year, Starmer has been unhindered for 6 months.

5. The daily headlines that Corbyn and all his supporters were antisemites just aren’t there for Starmer. Ditto the constant querying of whether Jewish people could vote for Labour. Not being called a bigot and the apparent backing of the Jewish community should benefit Starmer.

5a. Accusations of bigotry from Black people, the GRT community, the LGBT community and others are completely ignored by the media and in general regarded as a lower order of importance in Labour. They should be a hinderance to Starmer but sadly aren't.

6. Starmer doesn’t face a vocal movement to ignore the Brexit result from the Labour membership, nor well funded and media favoured FBPE/People’s vote attacks. He was free to whip in favour of Tory Brexit while Corbyn was always boxed in regardless. This is a huge advantage.

7. Regardless of why, Corbyn never did well in local elections, with his best result being only -18 seats in 2016. This sets the bar for Starmer doing well very low. Even if he still faced the problems Corbyn did, “forensic” Starmer's opportunity to do better is unrivalled.

8. Finally, by his supporters own metrics Starmer should do way better. Often we were told Corbyn's team were fools making the most basic mistakes. Thus even without the vastly more favourable terrain, Starmer's team should do better simply by not making those mistakes.